Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Outlook for 06-30-2011

Tomorrow morning should mark the top of the 22TD cycle.

I can't explain the level of the market.  Every analysis I run indicates it should be at least 10 points (and probably more) lower using the most optimistic assumptions.  Greeks rioting is evidently good for the market. I suppose if the Greeks had burned down a building it would be even higher.

Here is the SPY:

GL traders.  Interesting similarity between 06/21 and today.


  1. As little sense as it may make I find your confusion impressive. Sometimes being brave enough to say "well, crap." is the hardest thing. For not desperately trying to fit this action to some preconceived pattern you win the Morla award. Sadly that award is non-prestigious and granted by someone with no idea what he's on about.

  2. could it be just the end of quarter markup?

  3. Morla - I am sure I could have come up with some BS, but I try to read the charts and not insert opinions not based on the data.

    Just 4 fun I am gonna throw out some of the stuff I read that is not based on my read of the cycles tonite that I could have posted. Hehehe

  4. Richard - may have had an impact, not sure though how predictable such action is. Anyway it is not data I have ever followed and/or tried to analyze.

  5. Again I think it is extremely brave what you do....and I appreciate all of it. What I have come to find in following the cycles is that at the peaks there seems to be a residual effect similar to a ocean wave...where the wave peaks isn't necessarily where it crashes. I have found that it carries an "overweight" period about 1/8th of the cycle....just my 2 cents.