Monday, June 6, 2011

Comments and outlook for 06-07-2011

Today was much as posted/expected.  We broke the 1294 level as I said I expected we would.  We did not reach the next FIB level (as I said I doubted we would).  It appears to me that the longer cycles are firmly in control of the market and moving it down.  If I have it right the 1 year cycle will continue to push down through June.  We probably get some rally attempts along the way.

I doubt that tomorrow will be a rally attempt.  Remember we have the 1 year cycle hard down, the 20 week cycle down and the 22TD cycle down.  We have the 11.2TD cycle up.  The 5.6TD cycle should top mid day as the 2.8TD cycle bottoms.  With this alignment of cycles I think we continue down tomorrow.  There is a possibility of an attempt to rally mid day after the 2.8TD cycle bottoms, but it should be relatively minor.  I believe during the day we will break below the 1278 level, but will not get to the next FIB level at 1259.

Here is a visual:
Out of curiosity I took a look at a couple of EW sites.  Seems they are now convinced the market is headed down.  Thanks for the history lesson.  I told you in mid April that we had a VIX trend change signal.  About a week later the market topped and turned down.  We have now been down 5+ weeks.  I have been telling you for around 3 weeks that the 1 year cycle down leg should  kick in and dominate by late May/early June.  It appears that has happened.   I have tried to give you an idea of what would probably happen, not give you a history lesson after the fact...   Overall, I believe I have done fairly well in that respect.  I won't get it right every day, but check out my record for yourself.

GL traders,  Do your own analysis.  The bears are on the prowl.



  2. Hi Inlet,

    I am a newbie. Can you tell me what direction is AAPL heading?

  3. Kevin - I will take a look if I get the time. In general - if we are in a pullback (as I believe) you should expect the highest flyers (APPL, AMZN, NFLX, PCLN, etc) to have the sharpest pullbacks.

    Be extremely careful as this market seems to want to correct. One bad trade can take a lot of time to recover from.

    Today's strength is somewhat of a surprise. We knew at some point we would get a bounce, I did not think it would be today.