Monday, April 22, 2013

april update - apr 25 EOD

At the Monday morning open the market pushed up to the short term trend line we had drawn last week (see chart below) and then started a pull back.  The question now is - does it now move down and test the lower channel line we have placed on the chart?  If it does this will become a serious pullback as support at 1540ish gets broken.

Here is the chart:

From all appearances a bottom has been set as the market reversed prior to testing the bottom of the channel and broke thru the top channel line.  Also, it appears the Wall, the 34TD and 23 TD cycles bottomed late last week.   Now we are looking for new tops (target 1600) .  Here is a visual:

With the pullback toward the last part of the session it appears we may have set a top.  If so, we now have a new channel with a lower high (and a lower low last low).  I suspect we will find out the first hour or so after the open,  Here is a visual (4-25):

Friday, April 19, 2013

Nenner turns bearish

April 2013 outlook - update 19th

As I Posted on April 10th ---- we were ready for a 7-8% correction, we got a lot less.  Looks like volatility has spiked so at some point we should get a down hard reaction.  Looks like we got a down hard day.  The amplitude and time length of the shorter cycles have increased.  Hard to say now whether they will be symmetrical or left or right translated. 

Ordinarily all the news would be about the markets (precious metals and stocks), but with the marathon bombings it takes the attention off the market action today.  Here is a visual:

apr 16 12:30 EST update:

Not a perfect H&S but worth of note (1:00 pm EDT):

Update Apr 19 - 11:19 am EDT

Shorter cycles appear to have definitely become left translated as would be expected if the trend changed...

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

April outlook for gold 2013 - update apr 17 (Nenner)

Appears gold has stabilized here around 1600 and should see about 4% upside potential in April to around 1660.  Here is a visual:

GL gold bugs

April 11 - gold has gone from sell(s) - see red arrows on chart - to buy (see new chart and recent green arrows) :


April 17 - Nenner on gold:

Monday, April 15, 2013

april 15 Hindenburg Omen

[1] The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000).  Check and check....

[2] An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).  Check.

[3] The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.  Check

[4] The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.  Check

[5] New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs). Check

Last time we got an Omen was back in 2010 before the sell off.

Sunday, April 7, 2013

april outlook - update Apr 10 2013

Appears a couple of the shorter swing trade cycles should be down thru mid April (apr 17-18 bottom?).  Here is a visual:

GL traders

Apr 8 - close:

April10 close:

Thought we were ready for a 7-8% correction, we got a lot less.  Looks like volatility has spiked so at some point we should get a down hard reaction. May be time to add a few RWM shares to replace those I sold last week,

Friday, April 5, 2013

2013 Outlook - end of 1st qtr

So how well did I do in my 2013 outlook? One way to find out is to look at the first quarter and overlay the cycles I had shown when I posted my 2013 outlook.  That would look like this with the first quarter data included:

Not bad with the most recent top matching the 34TD cycle top.  If this outlook continues to play out as shown then we will see weakness through most of April....   After than I would expect a run up into the second week of June to set a 52 week high as the Wall cycle (20 week) tops and the 1/3 Kitchin cycle tops.  After than we should fade into mid August,  rally into end of October and then bottom near the end of the year.

In summary -  we should have just seen a top and next is a bottom in April (general weakness most of the month of April - enough to suck in the bears before the bear slaughter in May).

Thursday, April 4, 2013

April Outlook 2013 - UPDATE Apr 04 close

As I have pointed out shorter cycles have tended to be right translated (up leg longer) until the last couple of weeks.  These shorter cycles seem to have become more symmetrical now. This is the type of development I would expect during topping action (transitioning from right translated shorter cycles).  Based on this  one should expect a change in the longer term trend (mid-Nov until now).  We should know in fairly short order if this is in fact the case, but I believe we are ready to turn lower by at least 6-7% during April.

Here is a chart showing projections (and other notes):

GL Traders

update apr 2 1:00 PM edt

Appears SPX broke below the slightly up channel it has been in the last 10 trading days.  This would happen if the trend is changing (final top in).  Then the scenario would be something like this:

04-04 close  -  Has the shorter cycles gone left translated?  Looks probable: