Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Comments and outlook for 06-22-2011

Update 03:17 - looks like I was too pessimistic unless we get a sizable drop in the next 40 minutes or so.

Update 10:55 - fairly flat to down a little.  Slow start if we are to get a selldown just as I expected.

Was light on my upside projection.  Still I got the direction right and it closed near the day's highs as expected.  So not a bad call over all.

Tomorrow the 5.8TD cycle and 2.8TD cycles should be down. They should be hard down into a bottom near the end of the day.  The 11.2TD cycle is up and should be topping near the end of the day.  The 22TD cycle remains up.  So we have 2 shorter cycles down and two up.  With the 2 shortest cycles down hard by the end of the day I believe the bias for the short cycles will be down tomorrow.

Also, the 20 week (Wall) cycle should contribute moderately to the downside and the 1 year cycle is hard down.  Taken with the bias of the short cycles I expect tomorrow to give back most or all of today's gains.  The sell down should start slowly (assuming no bad news out of Greece) and accelerate in the afternoon (that Benny and his press conferences - hehehe).

Here is a visual using the SPY:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  I could be wrong. I know that is hard to believe, but it has happened before.  Hehehehe


  1. Nice article on IDing shorter cycles. Note the 11 day and 22 day periods in first visual (start counting at 4)...


  2. Nice call, especially on the afternoon acceleration. The S&P didn't manage to let go of "most" of yesterday's gains before the close but the futures surely finished that job immediately afterward.

  3. Morla - warned you I could be wrong!!! Hehehe May get some downside bleed over in the morning? We will see. Bought some QID around 2:30 for a nice scalp (sold it AH).