Thursday, June 30, 2011

Comments and outlook 07-01-2011

I told you last night I could not understand or explain based on my cycle analysis the levels of the market.  Now I could have thrown out a lot of BS explanations like this:

1). Tomorrow is the solar eclipse following the lunar eclipse on June 15. Basically the stock market headed down with the first solar eclipse on June 1st and bottomed on the lunar eclipse on June 15th and now is rallying into the latest solar eclipse. Puetz crash theory stipulates that a lunar eclipse following a solar eclipse generally initiates a hard down phase (it doesn't always happen).
2). July 1st is a new moon and a full moon is on July 15th.  The market usually tops on a full or new moon.  Note: at this time the moon cycle and 22TD cycle are much the same.
3) Spiral date calendar was high Jun 27-30:

This is just a sample of what I could have said, and even though I sometimes point out these things they are not a critical part of my cycle analysis. But I could have offered these and more excuses for index levels I could not explain using cycles.  I am not telling you not to look at these things (I do).

OK, what does tomorrow offer?  Today should have been the top of the 22TD cycle.  It will take 2-3 days for the 22TD cycle to gain downside momentum.  If you look at the SPY chart I will present you will see this is because some of the shorter cycles are pushing up at this time.

So the 22TD cycle is down.  The 11.2TD cycle is up, the 5.6TD cycle is up, the 2.8TD is up part of the day and tops by afternoon.  So I doubt we can expect any or little downside from this alignment of shorter cycles.
In theory though we have had pressure accumulating from the longer cycles that could begin to take control and move the market down.

Here is the SPY chart:
GL traders.  I have accumulated the 2X inverse ETF of the Qs.  In addition I have sold August out-of-the calls on 2 long positions to provide some downside insurance and still let me profit some if I am wrong and the market advances.  Even in down markets I will hold some long positions on stocks that have good chart patterns.  Be careful.


  1. See what I mean...the overweight period.

  2. What I see is a bipolar market. Get out the meds. lol Lots of volatility - all to the upside.

  3. It'like the crest of a don't see the crash until it hits the shore.