Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Comments and the outlook for 06-23-2011

Update 10:50 - got major bleed over from yesterday's close.  Much more than I thought, but it is what it is. Long cycles definitely adding to the bottoming of the short cycles.  Without a major reversal my outlook for a green close is not going to happen.

I told you yesterday:  The sell down should start slowly (assuming no bad news out of Greece) and accelerate in the afternoon (that Benny and his press conferences - hehehe).  Not a bad call.  I was a little too pessimistic as we only took back about 60% of yesterday's gain. 

Now tomorrow we may get some bleed over into the open as the two shortest cycles complete bottoming (a possibility worthy of consideration),  But tomorrow the 5.6TD and 2.8TD cycles turn up by early in the session.  The 22TD cycle is still up.  The 11.2TD cycle is topping and turning down.  So we have 3 of the shorter cycles up giving us an upward bias from the shorter cycles.

The 20 week (Wall) cycle provides moderate downside pressure.  The 1 year cycle is down hard.  So for the first part of the day the cycles should balance out (down a little, up a little) and be sideways.  By afternoon the upside pressure from the shorter cycles should win.  So I believe we should have moderate gains tomorrow (5-7 S&P points) mostly in the afternoon.

Here is a visual with the SPY:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Be careful.


  1. Thanks, Inlet. Sold my SDS in a/h for a good enough gain. My daughter arrived for a long weekend visit and now I won't have to watch the market. :) Good trading. Best

  2. Since one of my holdings (CSUN, and no I don't like admitting to still holding that) seemed to flourish in yesterday's bear action so I guess I.. sorta? hope? for a red day? So I guess I hope you're wrong? Really my positions including PMs might be detached completely.

  3. Suffered from double "so I guess" syndrome there, I blame Grand Macnish!

  4. Best - enjoy your weekend with your daughter.

  5. Morla, looks like we have some unfinished business from yesterday (a possibility I mentioned). You may get a red day if the open is down enough.