Monday, June 20, 2011

Comments and outlook for 06-21-2011

Update 2:47 PM should be setting a top on the 2.8TD cycle now....

Update 11:55 Has exceeded my expected range, appears I was too conserative.

Update 09:40 We broke above the 1279-1280 resistance level as expected.

The day traded in a modest range and ended closer to the high than low of the day.  We tested and slightly broke the 1278+ FIB.  This is what I told you I expected to happen.

Tomorrow we are sitting near the 1278+ FIB and this is a resistance point.  The 22TD and 11.2TD cycles continue up tomorrow.  The 5.6TD cycle is down tomorrow, but the 2.8TD cycle has turned up.  So we have 3 shorter term cycles up an one down.  On balance the shorter cycles should provide some up side push.

The 20 week (Wall) cycle continues to provide some downside push.  The 1 year cycle is still down hard.  So we again have these two longer cycles offsetting much of the upside push of the shorter cycles.  Can the market overcome the resistance at 1279-1280?  I believe so, because it seems to me there is a slight advantage to the short cycle bias up tomorrow.  Much as today any gain will be modest (5-7 S&P points?) and the trading range should be fairly narrow (1% or so).  Again I expect we will end the day closer to the top of the range than the bottom...

Here is a view of the SPY and shorter cycles:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis and be careful - I expect this push up to end by/before the end of the week and for it to be modest.


  1. Thanks, inlet...don't know why I haven't checked your blog before but will be a "regular" now. My thinking is in line with yours for the week.

  2. Sister - Glad to have you on board. As I warn people I won't always get it right, but I will always try and give you an idea of what I expect.