Saturday, October 31, 2015

Nov 2, 2015 weekly outlook

Short cycles bottoming as 20 week cycle tops and turns down.  With 3 shorter cycles up starting early in the week I expect right translation in the 20 week cycle as it takes a week or so to gain down side momentum.  So the bias should be up for the week.


Friday, October 23, 2015

Oct 26, 2015 weekly outlook

Past week not as expected.  Usually the last few days of October are bearish...  A few stocks like Amazon, Alphabet (formerly Google), MSFT today resulted in a huge jump in the NAZ.

When you look at the SP500 you see several stocks WMT, IBM, CMG cratering, but a few stocks like those above seem to offset (and then some) the losing stocks.  Not surprising though several stocks are beating as lots of stocks had estimates cut (some severely).  Earnings will be winding down soon.

Today also you had China making their sixth cut in interest an Draga (sp?) talking about more QE in Europe. So I guess the past couple of days are central banks inspired as well as earnings inspired.  We now have had about 3 flat to up weeks so time for a bit of pullback?


Been a couple of tough weeks to trade, around break even for the week.

GL Traders

Monday, October 19, 2015

Oct 19, 2015 - gold consolidating gains?

Gold broke its downward sloping trend line with a 12 week move up and is digesting those gains.  Expecting sideways to down move near term.

Watch closely for a good entry price.

GL traders

Friday, October 16, 2015

Oct 19, 2015 weekly outlook

With  10 and 5 week cycles down  there will be some downside pressure during the week.  With 2.5 week cycle up it will offset  some of the downside pressure and there should be additional pressure Monday as the 1.25 week cycle tops.

Expect some upside first of week and downside end of week.   Note the "W" formation on the chart, so be wary of possible upside breakout out.  But, an upside breakout failure seems more likely as most of these shorter cycles will have topped  out and headed down by the end of the week into the end of the month.

Also note CCI is ready to enter "over bought" area (up early week and then down?).  Finally the TSI may be rolling over and turning down (negative).


GL traders

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Oct 12, 2015 weekly outlook

Need to refocus on shorter swing trade cycles as market works sideways.  Last week was focusing too much on longer term outlook and missed the short term possibilities.  Volatility should continue as we have lots of issues (China, Syria/Mideast, no FED decision on interest rates, slow employment growth, etc).  So I have refocused on the shorter term possibilities.

Last week we had short cycles up.  This week short cycles mostly down, so expecting a negative bias.

GL traders

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Oct 5, 2015 weekly outlook

The past week showed a lot of volatility both up and down,  Friday for example opened down 200 or so points after the job reports numbers disappointed and spent most of the day recovering and ending with a gain (range for day on DOW about 400 points). If you bought an ETF like SPY at the open and sold near the close you made over 2%.  For the week most of the indexes were up,

The charts continue to look as if we should see some weakness during the week.  Probably enough volatility and with some accurate timing one should make 3% or more during the week.  Smallish positions best and use limit orders to limit risks....

Longer cycles are down.  the 10 week cycle (up) and 5 week cycle (down) offset.  The TSI zero line cross is bullish. So the weekly bias should be up early in the week but down for the week.

GL traders