Wednesday, June 1, 2011

comments and outlook for 06-01-2011

I look at the data (history) and try to determine the probable outcome for today, tomorrow, next week and the month.  So we aren't that different except my misses are out in the open for everyone to see.  I would say if you are right 55-65% of the time on daily calls you are doing pretty good and if you are right over 65% of the time - you are smoking (and should follow your own projections).  If you are right over 75% of the time - Warren watch out.... 

Of course judging what is a right/wrong call can be somewhat subjective too.  If I tell you the market will be up in the morning and down in the afternoon and it is up in the morning and does not pull back - is that a right or wrong call?  It is partially right, partially wrong.   So when I am asked how often I am right I have a really hard time putting a number to it.  I believe I am right over 50% of the time, but less than 65% of the time.

The point is no one is right all the time and you have to consider that when/if you decide to use their evaluations.  So what will today bring us?  As I pointed out last time we may be in a period where the 34TD cycle is emerging and the 22TD cycle (some refer to it as the lunar cycle) is fading.  If the 22TD cycle is still relevant then it should top soon  (new moon now).  Maybe that explains yesterday's action?

On the other hand if the 34TD cycle is emerging it may be mid June before we top.  I will show you both for your viewing:

If we pull back the next 2 days I would think we go with the 22TD cycle.  If we are transitioning to a 34TD cycle I would expect less of a pullback and then a reversal up by mid day tomorrow.  I am leaning toward the 34TD cycle at this time.  Either way we should see some pullback today.

GL traders, do your own analysis.


  1. I am really glad that you put these 2 alternatives out...this really helps. Keep up the good work. What you are doing is not anyone questioning your percentages should try it for themselves. Thanks again.

  2. Tkx Shadow. I always hope to be transparent in what I am looking at. Sometimes it works out, other times it doesn't. And you are right - it is not easy. I believe the hardest thing to do is get it right daily in that if you miss just one small item and it can invalidate your analysis for the day.