Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Comments and outlook for 06-16-2011

Somewhat surprised at the strength of the down side today.  Still it was 22 days since the last bottom of the 22TD cycle (nested bottoms for 11.2TD, 5.6TD and 2.8TD cycles).  Add to this the down pressure of the 20 week cycle and 1 year cycle which is hard down and it was not a total surprise.  We set a new low  today for this down leg. 

Now if we refer to Gann we know the cycle is most likely 22.5TDs (1/4 x 90 = 22.5).  This implies some weakness could bleed over into tomorrow morning.    Maybe we still hit the 1159 FIB level?  Overall though tomorrow should at least be flat an probably up.  I would not expect a huge up day, but that may depend partially on how the news breaks out of Europe.

All the shorter cycles are up (or turn up during the day) tomorrow.  Probably this leads to an up day even though we have longer cycles down.  This push up likely continues 4-5 days into mid week next week.  We will see, and adjust outlook if need be by the end of the week.

Here is the SPY:

GL traders.  May be a short term  long trade here.  I bought a couple of long positions today. Do your own analysis, be careful.  NOTE:  Had some comments about my projected rounded bottom - so maybe I was a bit early, all today did was shift that projection forward as we got no deep dip that would create a V bottom.

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