Sunday, June 12, 2011

comments and outlook for 06-13-2011

My call for Friday was close.  I think I covered to a large degree the outlook for Mon-Wed.   Even posted my shorter cycle chart (which I will repeat). 

There is a Fib # just under 1260 which I believe could be a target for Monday.  I am expecting Monday to continue the pullback with much the same momentum as Friday.   The 22TD and 11.2TD cycles are down.  The 5.6TD cycle should top by Monday afternoon and turned down.  The 2.8TD cycle should bottom around the same time and turn up.  So let's say a net of 2 of 4 short cycles are down. 

In addition the 1 year cycle should be hard down, and the 20 week (Wall cycle) is adding some minimum down side pressure.  So overall the cycles are pushing down and a 10 point decline on the S&P would not be out of the question for the day.  Any negative news could result in even more down side. 

Here is the short cycles chart:

Gl traders.  Do your own analysis.  Be careful the bear is still lurking.

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