Monday, June 27, 2011

comments and outlook for 06-28-2011

Update - noon -  the 22TD cycle contines to ramp up.  One more day (tomorrow) to the top.

My call for today was totally wrong!!!  Of course, if you do this you will be wrong some of the time.  Question I am asking myself is if I need to adjust/reposition my placement of the cycles.  But, I need more time/data to make that decision.

One thing you will learn if you trade is - you may expect something and the opposite happens.  When that happens you have decide how to play it.  You always play the market in front of you - not what you thought would happen.  So with the market up substantially (and the NAZ up the most) I took a partial position in QID (double inverse ETF of the NAZ 100) because I believe the downside is not complete.  If I am wrong I lose.

Tomorrow it looks like the 11.2TD and 5.6TD cycles should be down.  The 22TD cycle is hard up into a top.  The 2.8TD is up.  With the 22TD hard up into a top there may be an upward bias to the short cycles (that appeared to be the case today). So the longer cycles (20 week and 1 year) may decide the outcome tomorrow.  The 22TD cycle spent quite a bit of its upside amplitude today.  So I expect tomorrow will be down.  I could be wrong (again) if I am wrong about the strength of the 22TD cycle's up momentum.

Here is a chart of the SPY:

GL traders.  Be careful and remember - you always have to trade the market in front of you not some opinion on a blog.

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