Friday, August 18, 2017

Week of Aug 21 outlook

Nested  bottom forming, may take 1-2 weeks to complete bottom and then a small bounce?

 


GL traders

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Month of August 2017


Weekly chart showing longer cycles.  Bottom (weekly cycles) may be in (or should be soon).  Appears this correction will be 5% or less.  Of course, that could change  depending on Trump/NK and threats over the weekend.


Daily cycles appear to show bottom may be in but likely bottom will complete during the week.


Even shorter cycles here:




The 12 1/2 days cycle is made up of 3 4+ days cycles:


GL traders

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Weekly outlook for Aug 7, 2017

Corporate earnings looked good for the quarter.  Friday's employment numbers were good.  But there are also negatives as some 9,000 retail stores are set to close over the net few months (not all of this is Amazon, partially due to very skinny pay increases, or increased debt due to lots of Autos being sold last two years).  And auto sales are now flat to down (not a good sign for the economy).  STILL the market inches higher.

Appears we will get an extended 9 month cycle into late August or early September (at least?).  But, you can never be sure about what the market will do.  We could still get a 5% or more slide next week, so watch for a trigger......

GL traders

Sunday, July 30, 2017

Jul 31, 2017 weekly outlook

The market doesn.t seem to want to pull back. A 10% (250 S&P points) would be a moderate pull back, but someone is not reading my charts.  LOL -  chart below


Also the Siderograph chart is projecting an Aug 18 bottom:


GL traders

Sunday, July 23, 2017

weekly outlook for July 24, 2017

Still time for a sharp sell off into the cycles nested bottom.  Keep a lookout for a trigger.

GL traders

Sunday, July 16, 2017

July 17, 2017 outlook

Chart for upcoming market.  Will we  get the expected down turn?

 
GL traders

Sunday, July 9, 2017

July 10, 2017 weekly outlook

As we move closer to a nesting bottom it appears that the nesting may occur by early August.  This is sooner than previously thought.

during the next week I expect some weakness first part of week and an attempted rally latter part of the week.

GL traders

Sunday, July 2, 2017

outlook week of July 3, 2017

Several longer cycles appear to be heading for a "nested" bottom in August or Early September?

GL traders

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

July and August 2017 outlook

We all know that at some point the market corrects.  Appears multiple cycles bottom  (nested bottoms) late August or early September.  That should lead to a market down turn.   Note: That markets generally spend less time going down than going up, so any pull back could be short and nasty.  I recall reading that markets generally spend about 25% or less of a cycle span going down.


  GL

Sunday, June 25, 2017

June 26, 2017 weekly outlook

A change to look at shorter trading cycles.


Even shorter time cycles:


When trading shorter time periods moves are generally 2-3% or less.  If done often enough successfully these small gains can be substantial over several months.

GL traders

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Weekly outlook June 19, 2017

Some of the larger tech stocks starting to show some erosion (AAPL  FB, etc.).  Expect continuation as more stocks start to erode over the next few weeks. If you are holding consider setting stop losses.

GL traders

Sunday, June 11, 2017

June 12, 2017 outlook

Cycles become even more extended (right translated).  How long can this continue?  Best guess is not much longer.  Looks like the Elliott Wavers expecting a top soon.


GL traders

Monday, June 5, 2017

outlook week of June 5, 2017

Not only is the longer (18 month) cycle "right" translated so is the 9 month cycle.  A couple of short cycles up, but longer cycles should be down giving a mixed picture (this is why "right" translation ) becomes interesting.

GL traders

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Jun-Aug outlook

Seems the longer 18 month cycle is becoming very right translated (up).  There is a limit to how long that can last before it turns down.  Jun-Aug could see a substantial correction (bear market??).  Time will tell....

GL traders
 

Monday, May 29, 2017

Outlook week of May 29, 2017

Short week.  Old saying:  Sell in May and go away (as summer can be boring - as if the last 3 months didn't bore us!!!

\


 
GL

update - longer term

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Week ahead May 22, 2017



A mini crash in the Dow Industries leaves the market as a whole trading sideways (no major pullback - yet).  The coming week may see some more pullback./



GL traders

Monday, May 15, 2017

Week ahead May 15, 2017

Readers noted inconsistencies in chart posted over week end.  Should refrain from posting when not feeling well.  Hopefully this is a better chart.


GL traders

Saturday, May 6, 2017

May 8, 2017 weekly outlook

Last week as the week ended we saw new highs on major indexes (barely). Early week some weakness, but earnings and stats pushed the market up by end of week.

In the upcoming week we have 3 cycles  down and 1 up.  Since the 9 month cycle appears to be dominate - expect some weakness  in the upcoming week.



Good luck traders
 

Friday, April 28, 2017

Weekly outlook May 1, 2017

I told you last week that the nested bottoms were over.  So we had around a 2% gain early in the week with new highs.  To give a somewhat longer view this week I am posting a weekly chart. It is about 2 weeks before the 9 month cycle tops and the 20 week and 10 week bottom.  The 5 week cycle will also bottom (not shown).  So mid May we will have a mid cycle (9 month cycle) pull back.  Should be good for about a 2% pull back?


Daily chart:



GL traders

Monday, April 24, 2017

weekly outlook apr 24, 2017

Looks like the nested cycles bottomed.  Expect the week to be positive?

gl traders

Sunday, April 16, 2017

weekly outlook Apr 17, 2017

About 3 weeks ago I posted a longer term chart showing that a 13 1/2-14  month cycle should bottom mid April.  Looks like it is mid April!!

Also note the 20 week (10 week) cycle is bottoming  (2 cycles nested).  These 2 cycles seem to be dominant near term into late April as the 20 week cycle tops and turns down.  TSI crossed the zero line from above (a negative signal).

Good luck traders.

Friday, April 7, 2017

weekly outlook Apr 10, 2017

Indexes closed flat (very small losses) for the Apr 3rd week.  Three shorter cycles up, Longer cycle topped and turned down.  TSI flashing negatives.  Mixed signals, but bias of cycles should be up for the week.



GL traders

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Outlook - longer term

On occasion I look at longer cycles to provide a context for the shorter swing cycles..  Normally The nine month cycle (about 190 trading days) is the longest cycle I discuss in my shorter term outlook to try and identify turning points.  The nine month cycle breaks down to 2 X  4 1/2 month cycles (about 95 trading days).  The 4 1/2 month cycles breaks down into 10 week cycles (about 50 days) and 5 week cycles (about 25 days).  If we were day trading we would look at even shorter cycles (12 1/2 days, 7 days, 3 1/2 days, etc.).

Longer cycles are the Juglar cycle (about 7 years). Two Kitchin cycles make up a Juglar  cycle (40-42 months, 3 1/2 years or 900 days).  The Kitchin cycle divides into 3 cycles ( called 1/3 Kitchin cycles of about 13 1/2 to 14 months or abour 300 days).  A 1/3 Kitchin cycle is composed of  3 Wall (4 1/2 months or about 100 days) .  This is where I normally start in my shorter swing trade analysis....

NOTE:  Juglar and Kitchin are people's names (Google them for more info)

Picture the above information:

 


As you can see we have multiple longer term cycles at up after the 1/3 Kitchin recent bottom. TSI is at extreme highs (in the past this has been sell points). If you are a longer term investor WAIT for a considerable pullback to invest (raise some cash now so you have some dry powder.).
 
Good luck investor.

Weekly outlook Apr 03, 2017

Short cycles formed a nested bottom and have turned up.  The week should show a positive outcome for the week.


Good luck traders

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Weekly outlook Mar 27, 2017

Bottom may have been Tuesday's 1% pullback, but we have worked slightly lower in some indexes.  So we may work slightly lower as the nested bottoms finalize their move.  Notice that the lower bound of the Keltner channel been touched (as it was in Nov 2016, late June 2016 and mid February 2016. (every 4 1/2 months).

 November 8, 2016 plus 4 1/2 months is due now even allowing for some non-trading holidays.  So we will see next week - does the market turn up as shorter cycles turn up or does the bottom take 2-3 more days to gain enough upside pressure to move off the bottom?



GL traders


Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weekly outlook Mar 20, 2017

3 shorter cycles formed a nested bottom and are turning up.  Long (9 month) cycle topped and is turning down.  As cycles gain momentum may set a new high, but not expecting any large move up or down.


Update 3/23:  Top of 9 month cycle and we get a mid-cycle (4 1/2 month) correction.  Next bottom of note is first part of August???

Good luck traders

Sunday, March 12, 2017

TLT mar 13, 2017

Expect next tradeable bottom mid April.


GL traders

Weekly outlook Mar 13, 2017


Appears market still has more than a week to a bottom (near end of March), so a pullback continues  another 3-4% if the charts prove to be true.


GL traders

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Gold/silver (XAU) March outlook

One more week down to set a bottom, then up as cycles turn. Last half of March should turn. but upside limited as 6 month cycle tops and turns down.

GL gold bugs

Friday, March 3, 2017

Weekly outlook for Mar 6, 2017


I told you last week:
"it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end."

We saw substantial moves by mid week, but gave a portion back after that.  The indexes were up less that 1% for the week  As I told you - limited upside   but Downside bias by week's end.

We have the 4.5 month (20 week), 10 week, and 5 week cycles down this week.  I expect these 3 cycles to prevail as the 9 month cycle see a mid cycle dip.  So a trade may be to trim your long positions (I will play an inverted index ETF for a short term trade - (looking for a 2-3% gain).

GL traders

Monday, February 27, 2017

gold/silver outlook Mar 2017

Gold/silver index: (2 week correction, - in to 2nd week of correction - then up 2nd/3rd weeks of March)

GL gold bugs

Friday, February 24, 2017

Weekly outlook for Feb 27, 2017

As expected the four trading days in the prior week rose (slight upside bias), but less than 1% for most indexes.

TSI is showing a negative cross.  The 4.5 month cycle and 10 week cycles are into what should be a stronger down part of those 2 cycles.  The 5 week cycle is topping and should be down by mid week.  The nine month is still up, but should be losing upside momentum as it seeks its top.

So it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end.


GL traders

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Weekly outlook for Feb 21, 2017


9 month cycle:  2-3 weeks up to top  in early March.  5 week cycle:  up. 10 week cycle:  topping and turning down by end of week.  Market continues slow ascent for next 4 trading days (upside bias).

TSI has reached a level at which a correction is possible in the near future (early March?)


GL traders

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Outlook Feb 13, 2017

Shorter cycles - some up/some down and  probably offset.


but when we look at some longer cycles we see one at a top (Feb 10 a longer term high?) and another topping in March (could see a market give up 20% to give us a bear?).  We will know by May/June.

GL traders.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Feb 6, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week " Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week".  SnP 500 was up about 7 points and DOW industrials down slightly - so not a bad call as "sideways is what we got for the week.  There was some volatility that could be traded during the week with a spike down during the wee.

I saw a couple of market predictors calling for a high Feb 10.  The 5 week and 20 week cycles are down.  The 10 week cycle is nearing a top (top end of week?).  This probably gives us a sideways week with a downward bias for the week.


GL traders

Saturday, January 28, 2017

Jan 30, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week: "Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.
".  That proved to be the case.

Coming week we see the 4 1/2 month (20 week cycle) turning down as the 5 and 10 week cycles move higher.  This will prevent a run away to the upside.  Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week.


GL traders.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Weekly outlook for Jan 23, 2017

I said last week - "Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week".  From the current chart appears those 2 shorter cycles are definitely up.  Not  sure the "M" pattern will develop....

WARNING: One thing that always screws with the timing of tops and bottoms during this time (Nov through mid January) is the multiple days the market is closed due to holidays (Thanksgiving - 1.5 days, Christmas - 1 day, New Years - 1 day and MLK day.  A total of 4.5 days market is closed in about 1.5 months).  So be aware of the potential compression of market days in a cycle during this time of year.

 Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.


GL traders

Update - gold/silver index:


Hitting resistance as 7 week cycle tops (should bottom 3rd week of February as 3.5 month cycle tops).