Monday, April 24, 2017

weekly outlook apr 24, 2017

Looks like the nested cycles bottomed.  Expect the week to be positive?

gl traders

Sunday, April 16, 2017

weekly outlook Apr 17, 2017

About 3 weeks ago I posted a longer term chart showing that a 13 1/2-14  month cycle should bottom mid April.  Looks like it is mid April!!

Also note the 20 week (10 week) cycle is bottoming  (2 cycles nested).  These 2 cycles seem to be dominant near term into late April as the 20 week cycle tops and turns down.  TSI crossed the zero line from above (a negative signal).

Good luck traders.

Friday, April 7, 2017

weekly outlook Apr 10, 2017

Indexes closed flat (very small losses) for the Apr 3rd week.  Three shorter cycles up, Longer cycle topped and turned down.  TSI flashing negatives.  Mixed signals, but bias of cycles should be up for the week.

GL traders

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Outlook - longer term

On occasion I look at longer cycles to provide a context for the shorter swing cycles..  Normally The nine month cycle (about 190 trading days) is the longest cycle I discuss in my shorter term outlook to try and identify turning points.  The nine month cycle breaks down to 2 X  4 1/2 month cycles (about 95 trading days).  The 4 1/2 month cycles breaks down into 10 week cycles (about 50 days) and 5 week cycles (about 25 days).  If we were day trading we would look at even shorter cycles (12 1/2 days, 7 days, 3 1/2 days, etc.).

Longer cycles are the Juglar cycle (about 7 years). Two Kitchin cycles make up a Juglar  cycle (40-42 months, 3 1/2 years or 900 days).  The Kitchin cycle divides into 3 cycles ( called 1/3 Kitchin cycles of about 13 1/2 to 14 months or abour 300 days).  A 1/3 Kitchin cycle is composed of  3 Wall (4 1/2 months or about 100 days) .  This is where I normally start in my shorter swing trade analysis....

NOTE:  Juglar and Kitchin are people's names (Google them for more info)

Picture the above information:


As you can see we have multiple longer term cycles at up after the 1/3 Kitchin recent bottom. TSI is at extreme highs (in the past this has been sell points). If you are a longer term investor WAIT for a considerable pullback to invest (raise some cash now so you have some dry powder.).
Good luck investor.

Weekly outlook Apr 03, 2017

Short cycles formed a nested bottom and have turned up.  The week should show a positive outcome for the week.

Good luck traders

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Weekly outlook Mar 27, 2017

Bottom may have been Tuesday's 1% pullback, but we have worked slightly lower in some indexes.  So we may work slightly lower as the nested bottoms finalize their move.  Notice that the lower bound of the Keltner channel been touched (as it was in Nov 2016, late June 2016 and mid February 2016. (every 4 1/2 months).

 November 8, 2016 plus 4 1/2 months is due now even allowing for some non-trading holidays.  So we will see next week - does the market turn up as shorter cycles turn up or does the bottom take 2-3 more days to gain enough upside pressure to move off the bottom?

GL traders

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weekly outlook Mar 20, 2017

3 shorter cycles formed a nested bottom and are turning up.  Long (9 month) cycle topped and is turning down.  As cycles gain momentum may set a new high, but not expecting any large move up or down.

Update 3/23:  Top of 9 month cycle and we get a mid-cycle (4 1/2 month) correction.  Next bottom of note is first part of August???

Good luck traders

Sunday, March 12, 2017

TLT mar 13, 2017

Expect next tradeable bottom mid April.

GL traders

Weekly outlook Mar 13, 2017

Appears market still has more than a week to a bottom (near end of March), so a pullback continues  another 3-4% if the charts prove to be true.

GL traders

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Gold/silver (XAU) March outlook

One more week down to set a bottom, then up as cycles turn. Last half of March should turn. but upside limited as 6 month cycle tops and turns down.

GL gold bugs

Friday, March 3, 2017

Weekly outlook for Mar 6, 2017

I told you last week:
"it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end."

We saw substantial moves by mid week, but gave a portion back after that.  The indexes were up less that 1% for the week  As I told you - limited upside   but Downside bias by week's end.

We have the 4.5 month (20 week), 10 week, and 5 week cycles down this week.  I expect these 3 cycles to prevail as the 9 month cycle see a mid cycle dip.  So a trade may be to trim your long positions (I will play an inverted index ETF for a short term trade - (looking for a 2-3% gain).

GL traders

Monday, February 27, 2017

gold/silver outlook Mar 2017

Gold/silver index: (2 week correction, - in to 2nd week of correction - then up 2nd/3rd weeks of March)

GL gold bugs

Friday, February 24, 2017

Weekly outlook for Feb 27, 2017

As expected the four trading days in the prior week rose (slight upside bias), but less than 1% for most indexes.

TSI is showing a negative cross.  The 4.5 month cycle and 10 week cycles are into what should be a stronger down part of those 2 cycles.  The 5 week cycle is topping and should be down by mid week.  The nine month is still up, but should be losing upside momentum as it seeks its top.

So it appears any upside will be limited and possibly we see a slight downside bias by week's end.

GL traders

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Weekly outlook for Feb 21, 2017

9 month cycle:  2-3 weeks up to top  in early March.  5 week cycle:  up. 10 week cycle:  topping and turning down by end of week.  Market continues slow ascent for next 4 trading days (upside bias).

TSI has reached a level at which a correction is possible in the near future (early March?)

GL traders

Sunday, February 12, 2017

Outlook Feb 13, 2017

Shorter cycles - some up/some down and  probably offset.

but when we look at some longer cycles we see one at a top (Feb 10 a longer term high?) and another topping in March (could see a market give up 20% to give us a bear?).  We will know by May/June.

GL traders.

Sunday, February 5, 2017

Feb 6, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week " Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week".  SnP 500 was up about 7 points and DOW industrials down slightly - so not a bad call as "sideways is what we got for the week.  There was some volatility that could be traded during the week with a spike down during the wee.

I saw a couple of market predictors calling for a high Feb 10.  The 5 week and 20 week cycles are down.  The 10 week cycle is nearing a top (top end of week?).  This probably gives us a sideways week with a downward bias for the week.

GL traders

Saturday, January 28, 2017

Jan 30, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week: "Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.
".  That proved to be the case.

Coming week we see the 4 1/2 month (20 week cycle) turning down as the 5 and 10 week cycles move higher.  This will prevent a run away to the upside.  Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week.

GL traders.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Weekly outlook for Jan 23, 2017

I said last week - "Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week".  From the current chart appears those 2 shorter cycles are definitely up.  Not  sure the "M" pattern will develop....

WARNING: One thing that always screws with the timing of tops and bottoms during this time (Nov through mid January) is the multiple days the market is closed due to holidays (Thanksgiving - 1.5 days, Christmas - 1 day, New Years - 1 day and MLK day.  A total of 4.5 days market is closed in about 1.5 months).  So be aware of the potential compression of market days in a cycle during this time of year.

 Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.

GL traders

Update - gold/silver index:

Hitting resistance as 7 week cycle tops (should bottom 3rd week of February as 3.5 month cycle tops).

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Jan 16, 2017 weekly outlook

Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week (an "M" formation?).  Nothing is for certain and patterns are rarely perfect, but  if the pattern develops as expected the coming week should fall as the pattern develops. 

Bottoms may not match actual data and require some adjustments....

GL traders

Update Jan 18 (see comment on Hurst signal):


Saturday, January 7, 2017

Jan 9, 2017 weekly outlook

Looking at last week, you should have bought Tuesday.  The market is whipsawing traders (and I missed that call).  Chartists call the recent activity a mid-cycle move down.    This usually gives us an "M" formation and it appears we have the first 3/4 of that formation. 

If that formation completes then the market will be down in the coming week.  I believe we have better than a 50% chance the week is down.

GL traders



Update Jan 12:

update Jan 13: