Thursday, June 16, 2011

comments and outlook for 06-17-2011

I indicated yesterday I thought today would be flat to moderately higher.  I guess it depends on which index you look at - DOW was moderately up, S&P flat, NAZ down.   In total I think we would have to say flat.  Today we touched the 1259 FIB.  This well could be the low for now, and we could see a 2-3 day move up.   I would not be surprised to see the market move to 1294 and possibly higher over the next 2-3 days.  On the other hand with the longer cycles down (and the 1 year down hard) I won't be surprised if we don't.  In summary we should see 2-3 green days, but moderate up movement.  Tomorrow winds up OPEX so it might be a bit unstable (up and down).

The 22TD, 11.2TD, 5.6TD cycles should be up tomorrow.  The 2.8TD cycle is up a part of the day and should top by the afternoon.  The longer 20 week cycle is down but not at maximum momentum.  The 1 year cycle is down and at maximum momentum.  Over all this should lead to an up day tomorrow.  I would expect  maybe a 10 point gain on the S&P to near the 1279 FIB.  It could be a close call as to whether we are up/down for the week.

Here is the SPY:

GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  The bear is not gone, just taking a few days off.

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