Saturday, November 8, 2014

Nov 10, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated Nov 12)

Less downside pressure than expected as market continued to push ever so slowly higher.  Still it looks like a top formed.  We should see a mid cycle  (40+ TDs cycle) by Nov 17 after a right translated top this past week.  I do not expect a large pull back as this is a mid cycle pull back.  See prior mid cycles for an idea of the extent of mid cycle corrections (usually 2% or so).

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Nov 3, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated)

The current week should have seen the topping of the 20+ TDs cycle.  If we get a right translated top (past cycle midpoint) we could see slightly higher highs on S&P early in the week. but expect a top no later than Tuesday  even in that case.

GL traders

Bought some RWM on Friday, 2 cent per share loss at close.

11/4 update at the close:  So far volatility less than expected,  but appears top forming.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Nov 2014 monthly outlook

Given recent volatility moves in November may be substantial on a daily basis.  Over longer periods expect ups an downs to largely cancel over the month of November.  I expect November to be good for traders, not so good for investors.

We should be at/near a top to start November.  By mid-November the shorter (20+ TDs) cycle should bottom (Nov 17 +/- 1 day).  At that point the shorter cycle (20+ TDs) turns up and the longer (40+ TDs) turns down.  So  they offset to a large degree thru the end of the month and into early December.

I expect we could see around 2% pullback in the month.

GL traders

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Oct 27, 2014 weekly outlook

Last week I said to expect some upside from the shorter cycles.  Was stronger to the upside than I expected.... 

This week less upside potential as shorter cycle tops and turns down.

GL traders