Saturday, November 22, 2014

week of Nov 24, 2014 outlook

When in a strong uptrend it can be difficult to identify (see) troughs because they are minor blips down in the uptrend.

GL traders

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Nov 10, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated Nov 12)

Less downside pressure than expected as market continued to push ever so slowly higher.  Still it looks like a top formed.  We should see a mid cycle  (40+ TDs cycle) by Nov 17 after a right translated top this past week.  I do not expect a large pull back as this is a mid cycle pull back.  See prior mid cycles for an idea of the extent of mid cycle corrections (usually 2% or so).

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Nov 3, 2014 weekly outlook (Updated)

The current week should have seen the topping of the 20+ TDs cycle.  If we get a right translated top (past cycle midpoint) we could see slightly higher highs on S&P early in the week. but expect a top no later than Tuesday  even in that case.

GL traders

Bought some RWM on Friday, 2 cent per share loss at close.

11/4 update at the close:  So far volatility less than expected,  but appears top forming.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Nov 2014 monthly outlook

Given recent volatility moves in November may be substantial on a daily basis.  Over longer periods expect ups an downs to largely cancel over the month of November.  I expect November to be good for traders, not so good for investors.

We should be at/near a top to start November.  By mid-November the shorter (20+ TDs) cycle should bottom (Nov 17 +/- 1 day).  At that point the shorter cycle (20+ TDs) turns up and the longer (40+ TDs) turns down.  So  they offset to a large degree thru the end of the month and into early December.

I expect we could see around 2% pullback in the month.

GL traders

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Oct 27, 2014 weekly outlook

Last week I said to expect some upside from the shorter cycles.  Was stronger to the upside than I expected.... 

This week less upside potential as shorter cycle tops and turns down.

GL traders