Saturday, March 21, 2015

Mar 23, 2015 weekly outlook

We should be at or see the top of the 12TD cycle early in the week.  In an up trending market often the top is right translated (right of the center of the cycle).  If that proves to be the case with the market setting new highs (up trending) then the top may be as late as mid week for the 12TD cycle. Though we expect we may have seen the top on Friday, but our other indicators do not indicate that.

Longer cycles (24TD, 45TD and Wall cycles) have also turned up and may start to gain some momentum later in the week giving us a minimum type of pullback (2% or so?).  It could be more than 2% given recent volatility.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tuesday close: appears Friday was the 12TD top (as suggested as possible)

Friday, March 13, 2015

Mar 16, 2015 weekly outlook

Last week I suggested a  bottoming scenario with the possibility of not much change.  At the end of the week the SnP 500 was down a little over 1% even though we had 200-300 point moves up and down.  The bottoming should be finished early this week,  Then we get the FED meeting and all the pumping that implies by mid week.  This should result in about 6 up days (half the 12TD cycle) as the nested cycles I follow turn up.  Of course it takes time off the bottom for the longer cycles to achieve momentum so upside may be muted as it will be mostly due to the shorter cycle.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Monday morning:  Looks like "early week" was open on Monday....

Tuesday close:  down,  but still up for 2 days

Thursday:  Top of 12TD cycle forming:

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Mar 9, 2015 weekly outlook

I told you a couple of weeks ago to look for 6-8 down days.  We got that.  I adjusted the cycles to show a bottom mid-March and so far that is looking correct.

Looks like a week that could easily end up where it starts.  Down the first part of the week and then a bounce.  On the other hand if the market decides to continue what it started Friday we could see another 40-50 points down on the SnP.    Some day we will get more than a 5-6% pullback.  The market pulls back because it thinks the FED will raise rates in 4-6 months.  Seems a bit early for that.  I think given recent cuts in earnings estimates and declines in manufacturing may finally be impacting the market.

We will have a better idea by the end of the week.  Here is a visual:

GL traders

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Mar 2, 2015 weekly outlook

Looks like we may have finally topped Friday Feb 27.  We will find out next week.  I believe I am off with my cycle bottoms so I have tried to account for holidays the last part of 2014 and early 2015 which moves the projected bottoms into mid-March.    I find this is necessary with the shorter (swing trade) cycles about twice a year.  I should do a better job making the adjustments as the holidays happen.

So please note I expect the bottom mid March.

GL traders

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Feb 23, 2015 weekly outlook

Seems unclear whether market continues up or takes a short rest.  Greece can kicked down the road a bit.  FOMC still in easy mode (seems they are continuing about $25B a month to their balance sheet as they continue to cycle  securities plus interest back on to the FED balance sheet).  May not seem like much, but it is about $300B a year ($1/3Trillion). But Russia debt downgraded to junk.  So It is a mixed picture.  West coast slow down may be settled, but the damage done will probably be seen in the future.

Like I said an unclear outlook, but I expect a pullback over the next 6-8 trading days.

GL traders

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Feb 15, 2015 weekly outlook

My expectations were off the mark the week ended Fed 13 as the market moved up Tue-Fri to new highs.   This is why we use Stop and limit orders - to protect ourselves when we get it wrong.

Looking at 3 indicators they seem to indicate we are in an over bought market.  Now, this does not mean an immediate pull back as sometimes we stay over bought (or over sold) longer than we anticipate.  Still I expect some sort of pullback during the week and into the end of the month.  Given recent volatility 2-3% would probably be reasonable.

GL traders

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Weekly outlook Feb 9, 2015

I expect the week to show weakness.  Friday may have marked the top of the short term cycle(s) and the market should pull back over the next week.  This is confirmed by the RSI3M3 indicators :

This is confirmed by cycles:

GL traders