Sunday, April 20, 2014

Week of Apr 21, 2014 outlook

Last week was "up" overall.  Market started to lose "mo" by Thursday and closed mixed.  I had projected lost "mo" by Wednesday and some weakness last 2 days of the week.  I guess the question is - will we see new highs on SnP500?  I see lots of comments regarding 2000 on SnP500.  I suppose that could happen, but right now the high I see from my projections is 1905-1910 if we get a new high (I believe 2000 is aggressive given the mixed earnings/revenues being reported).

I believe we could see some downside next week. The cycles are mixed with the longer cycle up and the shortest cycle down the first part of the week and up later in the week.  The other 2 cycles are down.  Overall, I believe the cycles setup favors a down week (1-2 %).

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Jubilee (50 yr cycle), Kitchin cycle (42 mth/3.5 yr), Blood moons and how it fits

Many of you may have come across David Knox Barker's work on Jubilee (50 year biblical cycle of debt forgiveness).  Seems the first Jubilee in AD was probably 15AD (The  year Jesus spent in the wilderness).  So 2015 would be the 40th Jubilee in the AD.  Of interest is that in 32-33AD was a Tetrad of blood moons during the crucifixion period.

So, today  we are looking at a Tetrad  (four) Blood moons in 2014-15.  2015 marks a Jubilee year, a Sabbath Cycle end (7 years) and the end of a Kitchin Cycle (3.5 years or 42 months).  Everything comes together in September of 2015!!!

Here is a time line of the Blood Moons 2014-15:

GL traders

Friday, April 11, 2014

Week of Apr 14, 2014 outlook

With Good Friday being April 18 the market is open 4 days this week.  Basically this past week I was right in concluding the 4 month cycle was dominant and SnP500 was down just under 3%.  R2K is now down almost 8% for the year (so keep your eye on this as it and the NAZ led up and now may be leading down.

The 2 month cycle should top (providing some upside push first 2 days), The four month and one month cycles are down, while the eight month cycle is up.  So we may get an attempt to rally Mon-Tue, but I expect it to be muted and down Wed-Thur providing us another down week (4 month  cycle still dominant).

Don't forget we also have a full moon Monday Apr 15 (often turns at new/full moons) may indicate a turn up.

GL traders

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Is it a FIB?

long term:

short term:

How about since the SnP500 - 666 bottom in 2009?

Actually looks like a top is due???

Monday, April 7, 2014

week of Apr 7, 2014 outlook

The 3.75-4 month cycle is down and has tended to be the dominant cycle.  So even though the 7.5-8 month, 2 month, 1 month cycles are up expect sideways movement with periods of downside mixed with pops.  Mixed earnings results could definitely give us a choppy market.  I do not expect huge moves up or down yet....

As I mentioned last week continue to watch R2K and NAZ as the key to whether the market has topped.  Notice we get small breaks up on SnP 500 but no real break out.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Mar 31, 2014 - weekly outlook

Appears we should have 1 maybe 2 more days of churning in the lower half of the recent sideways channel and then we begin the advance for the first half of April.  I suspect the SnP500 will make new highs, but watch the NAZ and R2k to see if the  total market has topped (I suspect it may have, but funds and traders are trying to push the SnP500 higher).  By mid April we should see how profits are playing out.  Estimates have been cut enough that profits should meet lowered expectations and if that is all they do the market should correct (I suspect by May).

Here is the coming week (down 1% or so early in the week, but close the week 1% or so higher) in visual form:

GL traders


Sunday, March 23, 2014

Mar 24, 2014 weekly outlook

The market seems to have established a trading range of about 3%.  the SnP 500 keeps making new highs (barely) while the Dow 30 keeps failing to make new highs by around 1 1/2 %.  I see no reason for this to change and if it repeats the week should be down around 2% into the end of March.

We have short cycles which should bottom this week establishing a mid-cycle dip. 

GL traders

Looks like a Head and Shoulders pattern has developed: