Saturday, June 27, 2015

June 29, 2015 weekly outlook

Should see weakness first 2 days of the week with a reversal up the last 2 days of the week based on cycle alignment of 3 cycles down and 2 bottoming by end of day Tuesday and turning up as 10 week cycle tops to turn down.



GL traders, have a good holiday...

Sunday, June 21, 2015

2015 the second half

A longer cycle spends only (about) 1/8th of the cycle span doing most of its downside damage...

For example the Wall Cycle does the most damage in the last 2.5 weeks of the cycle.  This is important to remember for shorter term trading.  One longer cycle I focus on is the Kitchin Cycle which is 41-42 months long (about 3.5 years - half the 7 year cycle).  1/8th  of 42 is about 7 months.  This puts the bottom of the Kitchin Cycle.  You have a nesting of the 1/3 Kitchin cycle, the Wall cycle and the shorter cycles I general discuss at this time also.  This is also about 7 years from the 2009 bottom which pushes the bottom out toward the end of the first quarter 2016.

Given this alignment of cycles one should not be surprised if the second half of the year turns bearish.  I have no clue if the FED's actions will extend these cycles and move the bottom into mid 2016.  I am saying use extreme caution in your trading during the second half of 2015.  Might even consider a position in an Inverse ETF (rational amount).


GL second half 2015

Saturday, June 20, 2015

June 22, 2015 weekly outlook

Appears my charts were off somewhat last week - (2-3 days).  Hopefully I have made appropriate adjustments.  This week you have 3 cycles (Wall, 5 weeks, 2.5 weeks) down and one (5 weeks) up.    With cycle alignment it may be a stronger move than recent moves. So expectations for the week are a down market for the week. 
 

GL traders

Saturday, June 13, 2015

June 15, 2015 weekly outlook

The past week played out much as expected, down 2 days then up 2 days and down Friday.  Friday pullback was not predicted.

In the coming week we have the Wall cycle down, the 5 week cycle down, the 10 week cycle up and the 2.5 week topping.  I anticipate the alignment of these cycles will result in a down week with a slight upside bias possible early in the week (Monday and Tuesday).

GL traders 

Friday, June 5, 2015

June 8, 2015 weekly outlook

During the week one cycle bottoms, one tops, one is down, one is up.  Looks like the trend of the last 2 days should continue for 2-3 days early next week, and then reverse the second half of the week. The down turn I expected early last week did not start until Thursday (appears I was off by 2-3 days in calling for a bottom this past week).

So it appears the bottom should happen by mid week this week and reverse up for the last 2 days of the week.  Hope I do better this week in calling the turns....


GL traders

Sunday, May 31, 2015

June 1, 2015 weekly outlook

cycle alignment suggests market will see a down side bias the first 3-4 days of the week and a possible turn by week's end.



The market has been going sideways since mid December with a slight upside bias.  I have been wondering for some time when we would break out to the upside or break to the down side for a much needed correction.  June/July may provide the first leg of a breakout.  Keep checking here for timely updates as we try to decipher the cycles and how they align and affect the market.

Based on cycle alignment we should see some moderate weakness in June with a low around June 5 and June 23.  It appears that the market is setting up for lower lows and that is needed to start a market correction.  In late July the 4 cycles align and form a nested bottom.  I reserve the right to modify this outlook if the data dictates a change....


GL traders

Friday, May 22, 2015

May 25, 2015 weekly outlook

Monday unchanged.... a holiday.   Long cycle (Wall) topped and is now down.   The shorter cycle (2.5 week - 12 TDs) is down.  the 5 week cycle is up and should top  as the first week of June arrives.  The 10 week cycle is up.  So with 2 cycles down and 2 up expect more sideways action, but I would expect a wider range than the week just ended. Possibly some downside bias as we enter June?

Our indicators (TSI and CCI) are turning negative as well.

 


GL traders