Sunday, October 12, 2014

Oct 13, 2014 weekly outlook

I have shown you longer term cycles that indicated we should see market weakness and pullbacks in  the Aug-Oct 2014 time frame.  Even longer cycles may bottom in 2015-2016.  I am beginning to believe the market is now under the influence of these longer cycles (3.5 year Kitchin cycle, 13 1/2-15 month 1/3 Kitchin cycle, 20 week Wall cycle).  I  have also recently shown you the 7 year Juglar cycle....

We may get an attempt to rally this week as the large banks report, but any rally will be short lived.  Here is the outlook (Longer cycles now synched down):

GL traders

10/14/2014 update

An advancing market displays the characteristic of right translated cycles (longer periods advancing than falling).  I have mentioned this several times over the past 4-5 years.  A declining market is characterized by left translated cycles (down legs are longer in time and decline more than they advance).  Usually the declines are more pronounced in a major decline than  the advances were in the same amount of time.  I showed you a chart recently showing major cycles advancing about 5.5 years to lose those advances to a large extent in 1.5 to 2 years.  Here is the recent market  - note the left translated cycles (peaks left of the center line of the cycle):

Left translation continues?

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Oct 6, 2014 weekly outlook

Last week said a short term bottom was expected.  Bottom was 1 day later than expected. Recovered a substantial part of the loss from earlier in the week by Friday.  Short term it appears we should see some gain first part of this week. Expect a top by Friday unless the unexpected happens in Europe, mid East or China.  We could also see multiple cases of Ebola in Dallas (fear is not good for the market).

But based on short cycles expect continued volatility with market highs in latter part of week or fist of following week...

Here is a short term chart outlook:

GL traders.  I expect to replenish my RWM positions by end of week...

update after close 10/07/2014

Weakness continued and buy signals failed to materialize...

Longer term charts showing weak Oct seem to be in effect.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

sep 29, 2014 weekly outlook

This past week all the major indexes finished down.  A lot of volatility.  Same type of activity last time a QE was set to expire as is about to happen in October.  Is this the cause of weakness and volatility?  Unsure, but it does raise the question....

Looks like we should see a short term bottom by Sept 30 (+/- 1 day).  Medium term look for more volatility and some weakness.  Maybe we finally get a correction (-10% or more), if the FED quits flooding the economy with newly printed currency.

Here is a short term outlook:


Saturday, September 20, 2014

sept 22, 2014 - Is it time?

take  a look:

Have we topped?  I have a full position RWM.

We may see a try at higher highs by mid week, but I suspect we are at/near a high:


Update:  9/22 sold a tranche of RWM; hope to buy it back if R2K pops a bit.:

update sep 23


Sunday, September 14, 2014

Sept 13 weekly outlook and more

More of a downside move than anticipated, but it is what it is.  I continue to hold  RWM shares (R2K inverse) and have about a 1% gain at the close Friday. Because it seemed I had gotten out of sync with the market I have attempted to fix that.  I hope I have.  Here is that attempt:

Longer term the group of longer term cycles I have referenced in the past (Kitchin, 1/3 Kitchin and Wall cycles) seem to be coming together to provide a more protracted downturn.  The Wall cycle (20 weeks, 4.5 weeks) should be at a top, the 1/3 Kitchin 13,5 months is over 6 months up from its last bottom and topping.  The Kitchin cycle is well past its top and should be in the area where it goes hard down soon.

See for yourself:

How much of a pullback could we expect?   I looked at the nesting of cycles longer than the Kitchin  some time ago.   Two Kitchin cycles make up what is called the Juglar cycle (7+ years).  This cycle usually right translates and goes up 5-5 1/2 years and down 1 1/2-2 years.  Last bottom was likely early 2009 (up 5+ years 2002-2007) and down late 2007 into Mar 2009).  Here is an update of a chart I maintain showing the current iteration of this cycle:

If I have the timeframes correct then the Juglar Cycle should start its pullback soon and it could get nasty,

So this covers the long cycles?  Hardly!!! Here are longer cycles (that I posted quite a while [2-3 years] ago and their likely placement in time (2 Juglar cycles in a Kuznet cycle):

We are overdue for a downturn (some claim FED policy has elongated some of these longer cycles by 1-2 years and if that is the case any downturn could be very fast and powerful).
GL traders

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Sept 8, 2014 weekly outlook

The prior week traded in a very narrow range over the 4 trading days.  It was down going in to Friday and turned positive for the week on very poor employment news. The theory seems to be slack employment will restrain the FED when it comes to raising interest rates.  Still QE3 is set to wind down by  October.  Going to be interesting to see if the market actually reacts to this slow down in printing dollars.  If so we should see reaction starting soon.  Russell 2000 was little changed.

Appears market will continue sideways with a spike up during the week of 10-15 SPX points to set a top around 2020.  By the end of the week probably not  much change.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Update Sep 9:
Looks like RWM forming inverted H&S pattern:

VTL (Valid Trend lines)