May 19 outlook

Evidence suggests the market should continue up next week, but we may see topping action soon (up/down/up/down with minimal upside progress).  We could see a top as early as May 28 (moon phase), but It could be as late as June 7-10 (with any cycle right translation but), to keep it short we should see a top soon.

The RWM (Russell 2000 short ETF) suggests a top by around May 28 as it bottoms.

 SPX on the other hand suggests a top a bit later (first week of June?).

In summary - top between last week of May or first week of June.  Watch your short term trading indicators (for example RSI (3))....

May 20 EOD:

Up, down, up, down.....

May 17 - gold outlook

Gold has been heading toward last months low and should test it as suggested in early May.  The current target according to the DPO estimate is 1325-1330 by or before May 28.  Time will  tell, but that is the time frame for the 23TD and 34TD cycle bottoms.

Here is a visual:

May - week of 12th (may 15 update)

Longer term cycles show up trend continuing into at least 2nd week of June.  Of course tops in an up trending market are  usually right translated as the up leg is longer in time than down legs (shorter in down trending markets and left translated).  So target date for a significant top is around June 10, but may be later because of translation...  Here is a visual:

Currently the longer cycles (ie Wall cycle) are  trending up, but we have some shorter cycles (ie 34 TD - 1/3 the Wall cycle) is down this week.  So we may get some downside pressure, but it  will be partially offset by the up trending longer cycles.  So be careful.  Here is a visual:

May 15: Shorter cycles continue to be right translated as the trend continues to be up (this is to be expected).  Any pullbacks (counter trend) are shallow and short (to be expected).  So the shorter cycles are about 5 days up and 3-4 days down....  I expect this will continue into June.  Here is a visual:

Was today's midday reversal a short term top (right translated - top expected by Monday?):

May 16 EOD - seems we turned today, about 3 days later than projected top as shorter cycles continue to be right translated (means down leg probably will be short and shallow).  As OPEX ends tomorrow we should not be surprised to see a low by EOD Friday:

May 2013 gold outlook - update May 10

We got a dead cat bounce off a bottom.  Is it a final bottom?  Hard to say, but it looks like gold is ready to pull back again and possibly test the bottom.  Here is a chart of GLD:

GL

5/10 3:17 pm EDT Today gold took a hit as interest rates went up and the dollar went over 100 Yen. Take a look:

This seems to  be a possible test of the recent lows?

05/13 - Question - do gold and silver move in concert?

 

May 2013 outlook update May 09

Updated my yearly outlook chart to include April's data.  Looks like the market is tracking the annual outlook fairly well.  If it continues expect May to be up with a top in early June (start of week 2 in June).

Here is  the updated chart:

Shorter term we have short cycles (23TD and 34TD) topping Thur-Mon May 9-13.   After that expect some weakness, but wait to sell in June because May is too soon. Here is a short term look:

GL

09:45 am EDT - looks like we may be ready for a pause:

03:20 pm EDT - I suggested we should turn as early as Thur 05-09.  Unless we get a turn up the next 40 minutes that is what we are getting.  Here is a visual:

april update - apr 25 EOD

At the Monday morning open the market pushed up to the short term trend line we had drawn last week (see chart below) and then started a pull back.  The question now is - does it now move down and test the lower channel line we have placed on the chart?  If it does this will become a serious pullback as support at 1540ish gets broken.

Here is the chart:

From all appearances a bottom has been set as the market reversed prior to testing the bottom of the channel and broke thru the top channel line.  Also, it appears the Wall, the 34TD and 23 TD cycles bottomed late last week.   Now we are looking for new tops (target 1600) .  Here is a visual:

With the pullback toward the last part of the session it appears we may have set a top.  If so, we now have a new channel with a lower high (and a lower low last low).  I suspect we will find out the first hour or so after the open,  Here is a visual (4-25):

Nenner turns bearish

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/stocks-set-scary-may-says-nenner-151635217.html