Friday, December 2, 2016

Dec 5, 2016 weekly outlook

 I said last week "I expect a sideways market, odds may slightly favor a down week.". What happened?  DOW Industrials up about .1% (slight gain), SnP500 down about 1%, small cap R2K down about 2%.  Overall sideways with a down bias.   I think my call was close to market action.

This week the 5 week cycle should bottom by around mid week and turn up,  So for the week the market moves sideways with highs at the beginning or end of the week and lows mid week. Remember the other cycles are up so odds are the high will be end of the week, but the trend for the week is primarily sideways.


GL traders



Saturday, November 26, 2016

Nov 28, 2016 weekly outlook

Market continued advance.  As I said last week  " but still potential upside bias for the week as 5 week  cycle tops)".  Looks like the TSI may be topping and may roll over next week.  Remember the short 5 week cycle should be retreating (down) this upcoming week.  I expect a sideways market, odds may slightly favor a down week.


GL traders

Update Monday Nov, 28






 

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Nov 21, 2016 weekly outlook

I said last week: "As of now I am assuming the market bottomed and turned.  Given the new high in the DOW, highs in other indexes seem probable.  Still given the amount of movement up last week a pause next week would be possible before week end." 

Highs most indexes, but SnP500 was about 4 points shy of a new high.  By mid/end of week the market was losing upside momentum (as expected).  R2K out performed as focus was on smaller companies with little foreign exposure (Think Trump and potential tariffs of companies with none USA business).

Next week we have the 5 week cycle topping (upside momentum slowed, but still potential upside bias for the week as 5 week  cycle tops).

 
 


GL traders

Italy ETF

GDX - Gold miners

 

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Nov 14, 2016 weekly outlook

The one sure thing in the market is often it gives you  unexpected moves.  I said last week: "Election on Tuesday next week.  So it seems we have a setup for a potential BIG down day first two days next week."  Well that was almost right except we got a BIG down at night.  Election night there was a BIG move down (700 points or so in DOW futures).  I do not have an account to trade futures  so I was screwed.  From what I understand this was mainly foreign trading.

Come morning at the market open in the USA the BIG down was gone.  the market  spent Wednesday soaring. Continued the week going up (mostly).

  I said  "I will be watching closely for a bottom and pivot upwards."   No time to consider the turn in the market. Another miss because I was not fast enough.

I said "May buy a position in IWM if it looks like a bottom forming/formed."   Right idea but missed it.  A whole week of missing opportunities  Never been so right and wrong at the same time.

Hope you did better than I did....  At the end of the week with R2K up around 10% (RWM down 10%) I bought a few shares of RWM.

NOTE:  My chart last week was very much a bulls eye.

As of now I am assuming the market bottomed and turned.  Given the new high in the DOW highs in other indexes seem probable.  Still given the amount of movement up last week a pause next week would be possible before week end.

GL traders

Friday, November 4, 2016

Weekly outlook for Nov 7, 2016

Nine days in a row down.  Some support levels broken and week closed below those levels. 

Election on Tuesday next week.  So it seems we have a setup for a potential BIG down day first two days next week. 

Next week I sell my RWM (Russell 2000 Inverse ETF) position.  I will be watching closely for a bottom and pivot upwards. 

May buy a position in IWM if it looks like a bottom forming/formed.  Could take until around Thanksgiving  (2 weeks or so)  for that bottom to confirm....



GL traders

Friday, October 28, 2016

Weekly outlook Oct 31, 2016

Setup in place for a hard down week with FBI taking another look at Clinton Email scandal. Expect a bottom Nov 8-9?  Amazing how cycles has pointed to this possibility for months....



GL traders

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Oct 27, 2016 - Gold ready to run?

 Substantial break above 200 day MA.  See what it did last time this happened.