Friday, April 28, 2017

Weekly outlook May 1, 2017

I told you last week that the nested bottoms were over.  So we had around a 2% gain early in the week with new highs.  To give a somewhat longer view this week I am posting a weekly chart. It is about 2 weeks before the 9 month cycle tops and the 20 week and 10 week bottom.  The 5 week cycle will also bottom (not shown).  So mid May we will have a mid cycle (9 month cycle) pull back.  Should be good for about a 2% pull back?


GL traders

Monday, April 24, 2017

weekly outlook apr 24, 2017

Looks like the nested cycles bottomed.  Expect the week to be positive?

gl traders

Sunday, April 16, 2017

weekly outlook Apr 17, 2017

About 3 weeks ago I posted a longer term chart showing that a 13 1/2-14  month cycle should bottom mid April.  Looks like it is mid April!!

Also note the 20 week (10 week) cycle is bottoming  (2 cycles nested).  These 2 cycles seem to be dominant near term into late April as the 20 week cycle tops and turns down.  TSI crossed the zero line from above (a negative signal).

Good luck traders.

Friday, April 7, 2017

weekly outlook Apr 10, 2017

Indexes closed flat (very small losses) for the Apr 3rd week.  Three shorter cycles up, Longer cycle topped and turned down.  TSI flashing negatives.  Mixed signals, but bias of cycles should be up for the week.



GL traders

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Outlook - longer term

On occasion I look at longer cycles to provide a context for the shorter swing cycles..  Normally The nine month cycle (about 190 trading days) is the longest cycle I discuss in my shorter term outlook to try and identify turning points.  The nine month cycle breaks down to 2 X  4 1/2 month cycles (about 95 trading days).  The 4 1/2 month cycles breaks down into 10 week cycles (about 50 days) and 5 week cycles (about 25 days).  If we were day trading we would look at even shorter cycles (12 1/2 days, 7 days, 3 1/2 days, etc.).

Longer cycles are the Juglar cycle (about 7 years). Two Kitchin cycles make up a Juglar  cycle (40-42 months, 3 1/2 years or 900 days).  The Kitchin cycle divides into 3 cycles ( called 1/3 Kitchin cycles of about 13 1/2 to 14 months or abour 300 days).  A 1/3 Kitchin cycle is composed of  3 Wall (4 1/2 months or about 100 days) .  This is where I normally start in my shorter swing trade analysis....

NOTE:  Juglar and Kitchin are people's names (Google them for more info)

Picture the above information:

 


As you can see we have multiple longer term cycles at up after the 1/3 Kitchin recent bottom. TSI is at extreme highs (in the past this has been sell points). If you are a longer term investor WAIT for a considerable pullback to invest (raise some cash now so you have some dry powder.).
 
Good luck investor.

Weekly outlook Apr 03, 2017

Short cycles formed a nested bottom and have turned up.  The week should show a positive outcome for the week.


Good luck traders

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Weekly outlook Mar 27, 2017

Bottom may have been Tuesday's 1% pullback, but we have worked slightly lower in some indexes.  So we may work slightly lower as the nested bottoms finalize their move.  Notice that the lower bound of the Keltner channel been touched (as it was in Nov 2016, late June 2016 and mid February 2016. (every 4 1/2 months).

 November 8, 2016 plus 4 1/2 months is due now even allowing for some non-trading holidays.  So we will see next week - does the market turn up as shorter cycles turn up or does the bottom take 2-3 more days to gain enough upside pressure to move off the bottom?



GL traders