Saturday, January 21, 2017

Weekly outlook for Jan 23, 2017

I said last week - "Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week".  From the current chart appears those 2 shorter cycles are definitely up.  Not  sure the "M" pattern will develop....

WARNING: One thing that always screws with the timing of tops and bottoms during this time (Nov through mid January) is the multiple days the market is closed due to holidays (Thanksgiving - 1.5 days, Christmas - 1 day, New Years - 1 day and MLK day.  A total of 4.5 days market is closed in about 1.5 months).  So be aware of the potential compression of market days in a cycle during this time of year.

 Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.


GL traders

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Jan 16, 2017 weekly outlook

Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week (an "M" formation?).  Nothing is for certain and patterns are rarely perfect, but  if the pattern develops as expected the coming week should fall as the pattern develops. 



Bottoms may not match actual data and require some adjustments....

GL traders

Update Jan 18 (see comment on Hurst signal):

 

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Jan 9, 2017 weekly outlook

Looking at last week, you should have bought Tuesday.  The market is whipsawing traders (and I missed that call).  Chartists call the recent activity a mid-cycle move down.    This usually gives us an "M" formation and it appears we have the first 3/4 of that formation. 

If that formation completes then the market will be down in the coming week.  I believe we have better than a 50% chance the week is down.



GL traders

Update:

 

Update Jan 12:

 
update Jan 13:



 

Friday, December 30, 2016

Weekly outlook for Jan 2, 2017

I said last week:  

It appears the 10 week cycle did top and turned down.  That down pressure from the 10 week cycle should continue into the new year.

  Can't do much better than that...

The 10 week cycle continues down.  The 5 week cycle is also down.  These two cycles should bottom by Monday Jan 9 and then turn up...

 



GL traders - hope you had a prosperous 2016.

Update Jan 03, 2017:  $gold



 

Sunday, December 25, 2016

Week of Dec 26, 2015 outlook

I said last week: "10 week cycle near top and should turn down in coming week.  I expect some weakness into Christmas".  Still under 20k on the Dow as we got some down days in the week.  So my expectations were fulfilled.

It appears the 10 week cycle did top and turned down.  That down pressure from the 10 week cycle should continue into the new year.  Some may be holding off taking profits until January since Trump has promised reduced taxes.  We'll see soon.

 
Have a pleasant week and happy New Year.

Dec 29 - UPDATE


FLD (line) touched from above, Potential sell off...



Sunday, December 18, 2016

Dec 19, 2016 weekly outlook

Less upside than I thought probable (DOW fell just short of 20K).  10 week cycle near top and should turn down in coming week.  I expect some weakness into Christmas.

Last week TSI showed a buy (green arrow), that has now reversed to a sell (red arrow).

Merry Christmas traders

Saturday, December 17, 2016

$gold 2017

Outlook for gold in 2017.  Bottoms in early 2017 and then some upside.....

GL gold bugs