Saturday, May 16, 2015

May 18, 2015 weekly outlook

The past week SP500 had closing highs Thursday and Friday.  DJIA set ATHs on Thursday (but not closing highs).  The Naz failed to break its old 15 year high.  We said - don't be surprised if we saw ATHs during the week.  Expected the highs a day or so earlier than Thursday.....  Still not a bad call for the week.

This week we start the week off with the Wall cycle turning down for the week.  May take a week or more to develop downside momentum into late May and June.   The 3 shorter cycles start the week moving up.  The shorter cycle tops mid week and turns down.  Based on the position of the cycles expect a top by mid week and sideways to down last part of the week.  

By the end of May we may be into a real correction (sell in May and go away?)  We'll see how the cycles align by then....

GL traders

Friday, May 8, 2015

May 11, 2015 weekly outlook

Past week followed script, but Friday was a bit stronger than expected.  In the coming week the 3 shorter cycles are up.  The longer Wall cycle (20 weeks) tops.  So the bias should be up and with 3 cycles up it will be no surprise if some new ATHs (All Time Highs) are set  (DJIA, SP500, NAZ) with a strong upside bias.  Also, TSI and CCI gave positive indications.

Here is a visual:



 
GL traders

Friday, May 1, 2015

May 4, 2015 weekly outlook

The week just ended was mostly sideways with volatility (1-2%) up and down.  This was much as I posted based on conflicted cycles and indicators. 

The coming week seems clearer.  The 2.5 week (12 TDs) cycle is down thru the first 2-3 days of the week.  The 5 week cycle (24 TDs) topped and turns down.  The 10 week cycle continues down. The 20 week (Wall cycle) continues up for 2-3 weeks.

So to begin the week 3 cycles are down and one up.  By mid week the shorter cycle bottoms and turns up.  So a notable pull back should be noticeable for the week with a bottom by May 5-6 and sideways to up near the end of the week.

TSI continues to diverge (down while market was/is  sideways to up).  A sign of potential weakness.  CCI is slightly oversold.


GL traders

Sunday, April 26, 2015

april 27, 2015 weekly outlook

The outlook for the week is somewhat unclear, but we will give it a shot.  The longer 20 week cycle is up, while the half cycle (10 week) is down.  Taken together these 2 cycles offset to a large extent.

The 5 week cycle (24TDs) is up, the 2.5 week (12 TDs) is down.  These 2 cycles will offset to a large extent. 

The TSI had a positive cross late last week while the CCI is now in the overbought area.  Again offsetting indicators.

Some are predicting (because of ATHs - All Time Highs) we will see an upside breakout.  Again some indexes set ATHs and others didn't - so not a clear situation......

With positives and negatives conflicting makes sideways seem most likely for the week.  Here is a visual:


GL traders

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Apr 20, 2015 weekly outlook

Prior week ended on a down day.  Looks like any move down will be fairly short. The 2 shorter cycles should bottom by mid week and turn up.  The 10 week cycle has topped and turned down but will have minimal impact until it gains some down momentum.  The 20 week cycle moves up toward a top in 4+ weeks.  I expect the market to pull back into mid week and then turn up the last half of the week.

Hurst chart:



 
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Saturday, April 11, 2015

Apr 13, 2015 weekly outlook

The Wall cycle is up providing some upside push. The 24TD cycle is also up providing some upside push (as well). The 12TD cycle should top (upside push into mid week - then down).  Potential of index highs mid-week. The 12TD cycle should turn down by end of the week.  The remaining cycle will be topping during the week and provide little contribution up or down.

Over all expect highs by mid week and then the market starts a fade into the following week (April 20 week). Here is a visual:

GL traders

04/17 - futures looking weak prior to open, but you never know.  Still, I had speculated that we would top mid-week and drift lower by end of week.

Friday, April 3, 2015

Apr 6, 2015 weekly outlook

This past week it appears that the 12TD cycle probably topped early giving us a left translated top.  What does this tell us?  Usually a left translated top implies more down days than up days to follow.  More down days implies a good probability of more downside than upside.

The 24 TD cycle has topped and is now  down.  The 12TD cycle should be up, but as noted above the left translated top may lead to  an inversion of normal pattern (down instead of up).  The longer cycles are up, so usually we would be looking for the shorter cycles to offset and see a sideways move over the week +/- 1-2%, but I suspect it will be with a downward bias.

Given the weeks employment report on Friday, volatility should continue and time for first qtr earnings and they are not expected to be good.

Here is visual as best as I can determine:


GL Traders