Friday, July 22, 2016

Outlook for week of July 25, 2016

I said to expect a sideways market with an upside bias for the week.  That describes what we saw I believe as both the SP500 and DOW30 were both up less than 1%.  With the 40 week (9 month ) cycle being down and showing some dominance and the 5, 2.5  week cycles down (10, 20 week cycles up) expect a sideways market for the coming week.  The difference is - a DOWN side bias.  The market giveth one week and takes it back the next week!!!

Expect trading in a tight range.

GL traders

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Outlook July 18, 2015

Off to visit old high school friends and family so will not be posting over the weekend.

Shorter cycle (5 week cycle) should top and turn down.  The 2.5 week cycle bottoms as 5 week chart tops.  With these 2 cycles off setting I expect Thur/Fri this week to be sideways.  The 40 week cycle has also topped and turned down. 

I expect this 40 week cycle to be somewhat dominant.  In this case the up side will be limited next week  (upside bias).

GL traders.  I will post again in about 10 days, sooner if I get a connection  and the time...

Update 7/21/2016:

I suggested sideways action with the longer 40 week cycle limiting upside potential.

end update


Saturday, July 9, 2016

Weekly outlook July 11, 2016

I suggested an attempt at ATHs may be in the cards last week.  SPX gave it a try (above close high, but pulled back to below that level at the close Friday).  So the SPX is near its ATH at Friday's close.  Unless we get adverse news Monday should show new ATHs.

With several cycles turned up (and early last week set a bottom?) I believe the week will be an up week.

GL traders

Friday, July 1, 2016

Weekly outlook July 5, 2016

Bottom should be set and new trend up starting as multiple shorter cycles turn up.  During July odds are we see some new highs in popular indexes.  Maybe highs  next week (depending on data points).

Enjoy the 4th weekend.  GL traders

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

July 2016 outlook

I had been showing the last week of June as a point at which several cycles (medium/short term) achieved bottoms.  If you followed along you know this.  It is starting to appear that the bottom may have been set even though 1 more push down may be possible as determining bottom dates is not an exact science.  Still, my record looks reasonably good.....

If bottoms were set as I suspect then we start July with the medium/short length cycles turning up so the first half of July should show some upside strength (20, 10, 5 week cycles up).  By mid month the 5 week cycle tops and turns down so we could see some weakness the second half of July.

For your education and reading pleasure:

GL traders

TELSA requested:

Friday, June 24, 2016

Jun 27, 2016 weekly outlook

I mentioned in a couple of prior posts to be on the look out for a "scary" sell off.  Friday should qualify.

The market may be ready to establish a bottom.  Usually more than 1 day is required to establish a bottom.  So at least the first part of next week probably (2-3 days) will be needed to do that.  See update to last week's post - Bradley Chart  has July 5 as a turning point....  Because the bottom probably will be higher than the Feb 11 bottom  I feel that Feb 11 was a bottom for the 9 month cycle  and the next bottom for that cycle will be late in November,  The next 2-3 weeks should clarify this.

GL traders

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Future outlook week of June 20, 2016

 I said last week:  "According to my cycle analysis appears next week (and week of June 20) should see a sell off.".    That describes the week, except somewhat less downside than expected.

This week should continue down as several cycles are set to bottom.  The question is how severe will the sell down be  (BRexit during the week and Fed Chair appearing before congress I believe).  Could be a scary sell off (or not) depending on events.  The technical setup calls for a sizable pull back before month's end....

GL traders

Update 06/24: