Saturday, February 28, 2015

Mar 2, 2015 weekly outlook

Looks like we may have finally topped Friday Feb 27.  We will find out next week.  I believe I am off with my cycle bottoms so I have tried to account for holidays the last part of 2014 and early 2015 which moves the projected bottoms into mid-March.    I find this is necessary with the shorter (swing trade) cycles about twice a year.  I should do a better job making the adjustments as the holidays happen.

So please note I expect the bottom mid March.

GL traders

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Feb 23, 2015 weekly outlook

Seems unclear whether market continues up or takes a short rest.  Greece can kicked down the road a bit.  FOMC still in easy mode (seems they are continuing about $25B a month to their balance sheet as they continue to cycle  securities plus interest back on to the FED balance sheet).  May not seem like much, but it is about $300B a year ($1/3Trillion). But Russia debt downgraded to junk.  So It is a mixed picture.  West coast slow down may be settled, but the damage done will probably be seen in the future.

Like I said an unclear outlook, but I expect a pullback over the next 6-8 trading days.

GL traders

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Feb 15, 2015 weekly outlook

My expectations were off the mark the week ended Fed 13 as the market moved up Tue-Fri to new highs.   This is why we use Stop and limit orders - to protect ourselves when we get it wrong.

Looking at 3 indicators they seem to indicate we are in an over bought market.  Now, this does not mean an immediate pull back as sometimes we stay over bought (or over sold) longer than we anticipate.  Still I expect some sort of pullback during the week and into the end of the month.  Given recent volatility 2-3% would probably be reasonable.

GL traders

Saturday, February 7, 2015

Weekly outlook Feb 9, 2015

I expect the week to show weakness.  Friday may have marked the top of the short term cycle(s) and the market should pull back over the next week.  This is confirmed by the RSI3M3 indicators :

This is confirmed by cycles:

GL traders

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Feb RSI3MA3 buy/sell signals

A mechanical system can remove the emotion from trading.  I showed you DPO and how it aligns with stock prices. Problem is it trails price by half a cycle (if we are using 22 TDs then the DPO is 11 days behind as it averages days before/after the midpoint.

Many use RSI and looks for crossing of the lower levels like 30 as a buy point and higher levels as a sell point.   If we use smaller parameters and a smoothing average we can use crossings of these as buy/sell points.  Here is RWM using a parameter of "3" and a MA of "3":

Of course no mechanical system is perfect, so we will use "stop loss" and "limit" orders to minimize the effect of bad signals...

Friday, January 30, 2015

Feb 02 weekly outlook

The 2 shorter cycles should offset (12 TD bottoming, 24 TD topping) by mid week  (Tue midday to Wed AM).  I would expect a pause in any down trend by mid week as the 12 TD cycle turns up.  As you will have the 90 TD, 45 TD and 22 TD cycles down I would expect any upside move to be limited in the second half of the week (if any upside at all).

Here is a visual:

A second way to look at this using the DPO (Detrended Price Oscillator).  Notice that the turning points above +25 and below -25 give good buy/sell points.  Combined with stops a few ticks near entry point for additional protection can give you a non-emotional way to trade....  See what I mean:


 GL traders

update Feb 3:   22-24 TD cycle more dominant up than I expected.... moved midday Monday which was sooner than I expected, so it should top sooner.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Jan 26, weekly outlook

Two longer cycles (90 TDs and 45 TDs) are down.  Two shorter cycles (12 TDs and 23-24 TDs) are up into next week.  Expect top and turn down during the week with a bottom of short cycles by first Monday in February....  We may see new highs in SnP (close call?).

GL traders

1/30/2015 - update:

Charles Nenner Research (source)
Stocks should peak in mid-2013 and fall until about 2020. Similarly, bonds should peak in the summer of 2013 and fall thereafter for 20 years. He bases his conclusions entirely on cycle research. He expects the Dow to fall to around 5,000 by 2018 – 2020.
Kress Cycles (Clif Droke) (source)
The major 120 year cycle plus all minor cycles trend down into late 2014. The stock market should decline hard into late 2014.
Elliott Wave (Robert Prechter) (source)
He believes that the stock market has peaked and has entered a generational bear-market. He anticipates a crash low in the market around 2016 – 2017.
Market Energy Waves (source)
He sees a 36 year cycle in stock markets that is peaking in mid-2013 and will cycle down for 2013 – 2016. “… the controlling energy wave is scheduled to flip back to negative on July 19 of this year.” Equity markets should drop 25 – 50%.
Armstrong Economics (source)
His economic confidence model projects a peak in confidence in August 2013, a bottom in September 2014, and another peak in October 2015. The decline into January 2020 should be severe. He expects a world-wide crash and contraction in economies from 2015 – 2020.
Cycles per Charles Hugh Smith (source)
He discusses four long-term cycles that bottom in the 2010 – 2020 period. They are: Credit expansion/contraction cycle, Price inflation/wage cycle, Generational cycle, and Peak oil extraction cycle.