Saturday, June 18, 2011

Comments and outlook for week of 06-20-2011

It appears we had the 22TD cycle (and shorter cycles) bottom mid week this past week.  I was over pessimistic on the market low and where we would close the week.  I think though I had a good call the market action overall.

So the 22TD cycle should be up next week.  The 11.2TD cycle shout be up and top Thu. The 5.6 week cycle should top on Monday  and be down Tue-Thur and up Fri. The 2.8TD cycle  should bottom Monday, be up Tue and part of Wed, down second half of Wed and Thur, and up Fri.  Overall the shorter cycles should provide some upside push. 

The 20 week (Wall) cycle is down.  The 1 year cycle is hard down.  So we have the longer cycles offsetting the upside push by the longer cycles.  Still the week probably will show some gains for the week, but those gains should be moderate.  The first upside target is around 1295 FIB, then 1310 FIB.  I believe we could break above 1295, but fall short of the 1310 target.  The week will probably end near the high of the week.

Here is the FIBS:

Here is the SPX (20 week and 2TD):

For shorter cycles see 06-20-2011 outlook (to be posted later).  GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Use stops as appropriate. 

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