The month ahead (Feb) comments and projection

What will February bring?  I think my January projections were near the mark in anticipating highs around Jan 19 as the 1 year cycle was projected to top around that time frame and the 20 week cycle topping a week or so later (waiting confirmation the 20 week actually topped on Thu Jan 27).

So we start February (if I am right) with the 1 year cycle down and the 20 week cycle down.  The longer 2 year cycle should be up, and the 40-41  month cycle down.  So this should provide a somewhat negative bias from these longer cycles.  Still I expect the medium term (the month of February) to be heavily influenced by the medium term cycles (20 weeks or shorter).    So I have focused on those cycles.

As I indicated the 20 week cycle is down.  There is a less influential 10 week cycle that is down though mid-February.   Finally there is a 45 day cycle that should be down.  So it looks like the first 2 weeks of February should have some fair sized declines and less so in the second half of February as the 10 week cycle turns up.  See my prior post on next week's projections for the shorter cycles.

It appears the S&P GAP from the first of Dec could provide a target for the month and the bottoms a few points lower support.  Here is a chart showing this information:

Gl traders.   Have a prosperous February.