01-07 extent of the expected Jan/Feb pullback

If we get the "expected" pullback then how much?  There is a pretty good record over the past 11 years of pullbacks after early year highs.  So what does history tell us?  Almost half  (5) were at least double digit % declines.  Almost half (5) were  5-10% declines.  Only 1 was less than  a 5% decline.

Here is the beginning of the year declines:

If history holds we will have over a 5% decline and about 50-50 chance of a double digit % decline.