01-01 week ahead

The past 2 weeks I have told you to look for a basically flat market.  We saw minor gains in the S&P, but it was less than 1% over that 2 weeks, so I believe we can agree that the basically flat call was a reasonable call.

So what does the new year hold?  If my interpretation is right the 1 year cycle should top soon and turn down.  We have a couple of other shorter cycles down this week.  The 22td cycle is up for the next 2 weeks.  Overall though I think the weight of the cycles should give us some downside by the end of the week. 

It is my opinion we could get almost a 2% downside move sometime within the next 5 trading days (from higher levels -1265?) to around 1242 on the S&P.  I think the odds of a downside move  are 65-70% this week.

Here is the SPX chart:

Gl traders, keep your stops fairly tight to preserve profits.

Update comments 01/03 6:00 am