Tuesday, January 4, 2011

01-05 applying Fibonacci to time

Lots of people use FIBs to estimate price movements.  But, how about  to time?  Not so much.  So I did some research on the subject.  From Aug 9, 1982 - (S&P 102.20 low) to Oct 11, 2007 (S&P 1576.90 high) is 25 years plus 2 month 2 days (25 x 365 + 6 leap days + 63 days = 9194 days).  Note: 25 years should be about 1/2 of a K-wave (cycle).

Total days is: 9194 days.... So I constructed a FIB time grid based on 9194 days and placed it on a chart (8/9/82 to 10/11/07). The grid and chart follows:

What if the next 25 years, 2 months and 2 days mirror images the up wave to the downside? How will the projections work out?

10/11/07 + 0512 = 03/07/09 Crash low (Now this is interesting) 10/11/07 + 0839 = 01/28/10
10/11/07 + 1341 = 06/15/11
10/11/07 + 2170 = 09/20/13

So I looked  at 0.00000 (10/11/07) to 0.23606 (09/20/13) using FIB time. But, too long a time period (10/11/07 - 9/30/13) into the future!!! Drilling down one more level starting at 0.38196 (0829 days) to 0.76393 (1658 days) for a span of 828 days (1658 - 830).  I built a new FIB time grid. 

Better, but I drill down one more time (0.38198 - 11/30/10 to 0.76493 - 10/12/11. Then we create a chart for FIB time grid IV.  Following is the FIB time grids and a chart for Time Grid IV:

 Watch the FIB lines for pivot points in 2011.  Notice the FIB lines and tops and bottoms of the projected 20 week cycle.   Hope you find this as interesting as I did in doing the research,

GL traders.

No comments:

Post a Comment