Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Bussiere's 2011 outlook

The SPX should test the July 2010 lows near 1000 by the first half of 2011, but we will need a Spanish or other crisis to reach 900 or less and keep us below 1000-1100 by year end.
The 30 year Bond should hold above 115 in the first quarter and probably rally to 130 by the fourth quarter.
The US Dollar should hold above 0.75 in the first quarter and probably rally to 0.90 by the fourth quarter.
Gold and Silver are pulling back but are likely to challenge the highs again near May before declining into the fourth quarter and turning parabolic into 2012-13.

The Very Bullish Consensus needs a lot of Jobs in 2011 and that is not very likely to happen

The Very Bearish View needs a Credit Crisis in 2011 which is likely to happen in Spain

The Muddle Through Alternative takes us to 1450 by year end but is unlikely to happen with the Euro debt

The Cycle Progression for the US Dollar suggests strength and that is generally negative for Equities

The Cycle Progression for Bonds suggests strength into September and that is generally negative for Equities

The SPX Crash of 2008 makes Cycle Progression difficult but lows in July and maybe October are probable

The Cycle Progression for Silver and Gold suggest a choppy high into May


GL traders - enjoy


  1. Kli -

    and to think I have been accused of being negative. Mr B makes me seem like a bull.

    To da (_$_) alice.....