Thursday, January 27, 2011

Comments and 1-28 outlook

The day started as expected and looked similar to expectations for the first couple of hours - then spent the rest of the day going sideways where as we had expected some down action.  Clearly the shortest cycle(s) were having little impact.    So we got an up day (when I was looking for a possibility of a down day).  Not a great projection.

Tonight I have dropped the shortest cycle and added the next longest cycle.  It looks like a down day.  Starts off with a slight down move the first 2-3 hours and then the down turn accelerates into the close.  Here is the chart:

Caution:  these projections may/may not be accurate.  Short term movements can be difficult to predict.  Do you own analysis, watch the market and trade what you see.

GL traders


  1. I apologize for not responding to the post on "Patterns and cycles - the "W" pattern" regarding:

    "I have noticed that after the peak of a cycle and on the backside (downside) you get extreme highs and of course you have an explanation for this?"

    I wasn't really speaking to that exact blog...but rather in general at the top of a larger cycle it seems that you get "cast off" by the shorter cycle coming through and taking you either sideways or a little upwards in some cases but as the short cycle turns down you get the accelerated drop. So instead of seeing a big drop at the peak of large cycle you get a continuation of that larger cycle for a bit and then finally it tails off. It's like a big curve on backside of the larger cycle:

    And this may be the reason for yesterdays action?

  2. Shadow7 -

    Longer cycles can take some time to top (or bottom) and turn. It may take several days for medium length cycles like the 1 year cycle to several weeks for a multi year cycles.

    During the turning process they are basically going sideways and contributing little to market movement. Without this contribution the shorter cycles become more visible. Not sure they become stronger but more visible without the effect of the longer cycle.

    I have commented in the past that these times of turns by longer cycles make for an ideal trader's market as it becomes easier to identify and trade the shorter cycles.

    FWIW that is my take on turing points of longer cycles.