comments and outlook for 01-20

If you have followed my posts you know I have mentioned Jan 19 several times as a projected top for the 1 year cycle.  Did we get a top?  Too early to say for sure - but it had that feel.  DOW held up fairly well (primarily due to IBM).    If this is indeed a top I would expect some addition sell down tomorrow.  The short cycles may offer a little support, but if we truly topped they will be over run.

In the weekend post I mentioned nearly everyone was convinced we would break 1300 (and we still could), but for now my 1298 high call is looking better....

Here is the short cycles.  They may temper the sell down, but don't try and trade them:

GL traders.  If you tightened stops as suggested you probably raised some cash today in some positions.  If you have short (bear) ETFs and we get a down day tomorrow you may want to trim positions before the close and add back on pops.  Use your own judgment - just a thought.