Friday, November 12, 2010

Defining a cycle

I think we can agree if we define a cycle as 90 days it should be 90 days  and expect it to be 90 days every time within 2-3 days.   It is not 90 days, then 60 days, then 90 days.  In other words the cycle should explain the data without altering the definition of the cycle length to explain the market movement. Not only that we should expect the cycle to have the up leg and down legs to be the same length (symetrical).

This is the correct way to define a cycle IMO.  Otherwise I can just alter things any way I want to explain the historical data.  That is not analysis, but the expression of a preconceived opinion of how the market should behave.  Others seem less rigid in their analysis:

Alice in Wonderland - 90 days is whatever I tell you it is.

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