Sunday, November 14, 2010

Cycles - looking back part II

Not every call is going to be perfect.  When you are looking at an up trending marrket and the stocks that are leading the market up it is easy to over estimate the downside of any pullback.  I did that with AAPL.  Here is the chart from Oct showing my downside estimate of $290 (which was not achieved):

And for refernce here is a more current chart (and I may hve overestimated the downside again?):
And here is AMZN (another leader to the upside) - looks like I over estimated the downside potential in Oct:

And an updated chart (may be too bearish on AMZN again):

So, I won't always be right.  Still we need realize the leaders to the upside could lead to the downside if/when the trend changes and allow for that.

GL trading next week.

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