Tuesday, November 16, 2010

11-16 VIX trend change signal confirmed today

Since we first got a VIX trend change signal (closed below channel about a month ago) we had to wait for the Index (S&P) to confirm the signal.  We were waiting for 4 consecutive down days. Today was the first time we had 4 consecutive down days since the last signal.

Does this mean we go straight down.  No, it doesn't - but it should signal a period of time (several weeks or even months) of a down trending market as usually these signals are infrequent.

Interesting, that we are looking for the 40.68 month cycle to top in this time frame (Nov 19).  As I indicated in my weekend post though at the top that cycle would flatten and have reduced momentum.  So we may have already seen a top in the S&P.  Or, we may have one more push up toward recent highs. 

Here is the VIX/S&P as of market close today:


  1. so sell longs tomorrow and buy more shorts

  2. It is a trend change signal - not a buy now or sell now signal. Tomorrow could very well be up or down, but over the next few weeks (months?) the trend should be down. Bet, you knew that.