Wednesday, November 17, 2010

11-17 mid week cycle update

Based on market action the past 5 days I believe it is probable the 40.68 month cycle topped mid-week last week.  I was off by 5-6 days (so shoot me!!!).  We have had a very noticable sell down since the middle of last week, and so far no action indicating much of a bounce.  But, after the past few days a bounce may be due.

Then again it may be early next week before we get any bounce as that is when 2 shorter cycles bottom (22 day and 34 day cycles).  The 45 day cycle continues up to the end of the month.  If the 40.68 month cycle DID top then we now have 3 dominant long cycles (24 month, 40.68 month and 10 year) down.  The  one longer cycle that may provide some support is the 12 month cycle which should top around the third week of January.

IMO the sum of the cycles has now turned negative.  Time will tell.  Please do your own due diligence. Here is the SPY showing 3 of the shorter cycles:

For reference here are longer cycles mentioned above (previously posted):

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nd2O1a4fdxM/TM9x842cSiI/AAAAAAAAAC4/JqbXKzkKNMY/s1600/1101-10yr-41-24mth.PNG

2 comments:

  1. you cycle fiend......good work...don't be afraid to give the learning impaired more detailed probablities....

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  2. I have never calculated my very good calls, good calls, bad calls. I would estimate my very good calls (time + price right) is probably 40%, good calls (get the time or price right, but off on one or the other) is probably 30% or so. Bad calls (miss on both time and price) around 30%.

    On the other hand the VIX trend signal would have kept you out of the market (long side) throughout the 2008-2009 slide. Got lots of VIX signals, but no confirmations (4 up days in a row) during that period. There was a trend change signal and confirmation to DOWN in August/September 2008.

    With the combination of the VIX trend change signal confirmed and the fact cycles are telling the same story - I have a high level of confidence at this time we are in for a down trend. Don't know I can put an exact number on it but I would guess 90% or more probability.

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