Monday, November 8, 2010

Cycles - looking back Part I

Do cycles work?  That is a question you need to ask and answer for yourself.  Now at times I will miss or misinterpret something.  I have before and I will again.  If I have it wrong now you will know within the next month or two. 

Still, I have told you for now if you are a trader to buy the dips and sell the rips.  I have furnished charts showing this and at times showing the next potential dip (or rip).   So far that has been a winning strategy.

I have also posted charts of individual stocks that I was interested in or had a request to post.  Around Oct 21 I posted a chart on NUE showing it was about to bottom.  The lower channel lines I projected suggested a bottom around $37.  I believe the actual bottom was $37.02.  It the turned around and is now over $40.

Here is the chart I posted then:

So what about NUE now?  The evidence suggest it is topping and should turn down.  Here is the chart with annotations (sorry for the spelling on the chart):

We also posted charts on INTC around 10-22 and the cycles suggested a longer term cycle was up (and would continue up for a while).  Here are charts then and now:

In these 2 cases it looks like the cycles worked well.  I assure you that is not always the case (usually due to analyst error).
We will review other calls later in the week.

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