Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Wall (20 week) cycle - bottom today or in 2 weeks?
If you follow my posts and comments to those posts you know that Shadow7 thinks the 20 week cycle bottomed today, whereas I have it positioned to bottom in about 2 weeks. Now David Knox Barker is the authority on the Kitchin and Wall cycles IMO. So see what he thinks: http://www.safehaven.com/article/20555/tracking-the-wall-cycles-in-search-of-the-business-cycle-top-in-2011 (I believe this is his last article on the subject). Now I copied the second chart inverted colors to make it more readable and added a couple of notations in the bottom right corner. Here is Barker's chart with my notations:
Traders - you decide. Now or in two weeks? Now I agree that the 20 week cycle has reached the point where it is starting to (should) exert maximum downside momentum.
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Inlet - That's alot of pressure :)
ReplyDeleteShadow7 - no intent to pressure, just trying to lay all the facts out on the table so people can decide for themselves. My positioning of the cycle was based on Barker's work.
ReplyDeleteSo far you call for a bottom today is looking correct (and I will shift my cycles to account for that) - but lets give it a couple of days to make sure. For now you get kudos for a great call. ;)
Shadow7 - you will notice Barker sometimes varies the span of the 20 week cycle so if this was a short span then today very well could have been the bottom. For purposes of my projections I used 20 weeks.
ReplyDeleteInlet - Thanks again for a wonderful blog. I came up with using Safe Haven's 3/16 bottom and just did a 100TD count from that point. But I now see where they have a variable count on the 20WK cycle....so we're in a limbo here. But something bottomed today. I see we will retest this either Monday or Tuesday. I got a big up day tomorrow followed by a sell-off that should run into Monday. This seems to be confirmed by SPIRAL CALENDAR.
ReplyDeleteShadow7 - I appreciate your contributions. When we disagree it gives us a chance to more fully explain how we reached the conclusions we did and I believe full disclosure is a service to the readers of the blog.
ReplyDeleteHopefully in the future we will get more people contributing to the discussion. Multiple opinions is always better than a single person's view.