Friday, December 29, 2017

Year end 2017 and Jan 2018

At the end of the year trend lines show a top developing (SP500).  This should be the 9 month cycle top  (time to sell?).  The chart shows 18 month time frame (1/3 of a 54 month cycle referenced often by JM Hurst's  cycle analysis).

The VTLs  (Valid Trend Lines)  often mark tops/bottoms for prices (provide support or resistance). 
It takes two points top or bottom to identify a trend line.  See how  the 3 points fall on the trend line....

The FLD is the length of a cycle shifted right 1/2 the cycle length.  I have placed an envelope around the  FLD (Future Line of Demarcation) shifted right to match  the FLD.  The  envelope lines marks price targets.  FLD is another tool used by JM Hurst .

Price crossing FLD from below is a "buy" signal.  Price crossing FLD from above  is a "sell" signal.  This is the basics, but do some research for more a detailed discussion.   For example - using multiple FLDs (cycles) to identify more frequent trading points.

GL traders

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Dec 18, 2017 weekly outlook

5 week cycle has now turned down.  Three cycles (20 week, , 10 week, 5 week) are down.  9 month cycle still up but nearing a top).  Expect 3 down cycles to result in a top and a down turn within next 2 weeks.
GL traders

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Dec 11, 2017 weekly outlook

Minor up/down over the week.  Daily volatility could be considerable.

Good luck traders

Monday, November 27, 2017

Saturday, November 18, 2017

Nov 20, 2017 weekly outlook

Shorter cycles nested bottom appears to be complete as Thursday up move showed.  Expect sideways to up over next 5 weeks or so  as cycles 10 weeks or shorter dominate  The 20 week cycle should turn down so there is down side pressure from this longer cycle  (giving some sideways movement)..

GL traders

Longer term cycles UPDATE:

GL traders

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Nov 13, 2017 weekly outlook

SPX Circle cycle chart showing topping for 20 week cycle  as 10 week and 5 week cycle bottoms (nests -- implies shorter 2 1/2 week cycle bottoming also).


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Sunday, November 5, 2017

Weekly outlook Nov 6, 2017

2.5 week cycle down.  5 week cycle topping week of Nov 11 as 2.5 week cycle bottoms.


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Monday, October 30, 2017

Oct 30, 2017 outlook

20 week cycle moving down (should be dominant cycle)

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Saturday, October 14, 2017

Oct 16, 2017 weekly outlook

Ten week cycle is down.  5 week cycle should top during week and turn down.

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Sunday, October 8, 2017

Oct 9, 2017 weekly outlook

10 week and 5 week cycles down.  9 month cycle up

Short cycles:

FIBs (update):

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Friday, September 29, 2017

weekly outlook for Oct 2, 2017

5 week cycle should bottom by mid week.  At that time the 10 week cycle will turn down.

GL traders

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Golden cycles sep 27, 2017

For Gold bugs:

cycles running about 4 days....

Sept 28 AM  update


update Sep 30 (from Twitter):
David@TradingHurst @TradingHurst Sep 29
What about I hear you say...well, price is still at the 80 day FLD support and slap bang on an 80 day low area. Next week...

GL bugs

Friday, September 22, 2017

weekly outlook sept 25, 2017

The longer cycle (charted)  should have set a right translated top and decline into early Oct. Ten week, five week and 2 1/2 week (12 1/2 days) should form a nested bottom the first week of October.

GL traders

Friday, September 15, 2017

sept 18, 2017 weekly outlook

Multiple cycles have now turned up.  5 week cycle is down and this soon from the nesting may largely offset longer cycles.

From Twitter =

David@TradingHurst @TradingHurst Sep 14
Main phasing on the presents a bullish 18 month cycle just complete. Short term a 40 day peak
 is imminent.

GL traders

Friday, September 8, 2017

Sep 11, 2017 weekly outlook

Shorter cycle should allow for trading, but be warned with hurricanes, war rumbles, earthquakes forest fires, etc, the market is too risky for me to play in the casino.


Updated chart Sept 13:

GL traders

Friday, August 25, 2017

weekly outlook Aug 28, 2017

As expected the formation of a bottom is taking time, but should be about finished.  If so next two weeks may see a bounce  into mid September.  After that some more pullback is possible (see Bradley Siderograph posted in August).  Too early to make a call......

GL traders

Friday, August 18, 2017

Week of Aug 21 outlook

Nested  bottom forming, may take 1-2 weeks to complete bottom and then a small bounce?


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Sunday, August 13, 2017

Month of August 2017

Weekly chart showing longer cycles.  Bottom (weekly cycles) may be in (or should be soon).  Appears this correction will be 5% or less.  Of course, that could change  depending on Trump/NK and threats over the weekend.

Daily cycles appear to show bottom may be in but likely bottom will complete during the week.

Even shorter cycles here:

The 12 1/2 days cycle is made up of 3 4+ days cycles:

GL traders

Sunday, August 6, 2017

Weekly outlook for Aug 7, 2017

Corporate earnings looked good for the quarter.  Friday's employment numbers were good.  But there are also negatives as some 9,000 retail stores are set to close over the net few months (not all of this is Amazon, partially due to very skinny pay increases, or increased debt due to lots of Autos being sold last two years).  And auto sales are now flat to down (not a good sign for the economy).  STILL the market inches higher.

Appears we will get an extended 9 month cycle into late August or early September (at least?).  But, you can never be sure about what the market will do.  We could still get a 5% or more slide next week, so watch for a trigger......

GL traders

Sunday, July 30, 2017

Jul 31, 2017 weekly outlook

The market doesn.t seem to want to pull back. A 10% (250 S&P points) would be a moderate pull back, but someone is not reading my charts.  LOL -  chart below

Also the Siderograph chart is projecting an Aug 18 bottom:

GL traders

Sunday, July 23, 2017

weekly outlook for July 24, 2017

Still time for a sharp sell off into the cycles nested bottom.  Keep a lookout for a trigger.

GL traders

Sunday, July 16, 2017

July 17, 2017 outlook

Chart for upcoming market.  Will we  get the expected down turn?

GL traders

Sunday, July 9, 2017

July 10, 2017 weekly outlook

As we move closer to a nesting bottom it appears that the nesting may occur by early August.  This is sooner than previously thought.

during the next week I expect some weakness first part of week and an attempted rally latter part of the week.

GL traders

Sunday, July 2, 2017

outlook week of July 3, 2017

Several longer cycles appear to be heading for a "nested" bottom in August or Early September?

GL traders

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

July and August 2017 outlook

We all know that at some point the market corrects.  Appears multiple cycles bottom  (nested bottoms) late August or early September.  That should lead to a market down turn.   Note: That markets generally spend less time going down than going up, so any pull back could be short and nasty.  I recall reading that markets generally spend about 25% or less of a cycle span going down.


Sunday, June 25, 2017

June 26, 2017 weekly outlook

A change to look at shorter trading cycles.

Even shorter time cycles:

When trading shorter time periods moves are generally 2-3% or less.  If done often enough successfully these small gains can be substantial over several months.

GL traders

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Weekly outlook June 19, 2017

Some of the larger tech stocks starting to show some erosion (AAPL  FB, etc.).  Expect continuation as more stocks start to erode over the next few weeks. If you are holding consider setting stop losses.

GL traders

Sunday, June 11, 2017

June 12, 2017 outlook

Cycles become even more extended (right translated).  How long can this continue?  Best guess is not much longer.  Looks like the Elliott Wavers expecting a top soon.

GL traders

Monday, June 5, 2017

outlook week of June 5, 2017

Not only is the longer (18 month) cycle "right" translated so is the 9 month cycle.  A couple of short cycles up, but longer cycles should be down giving a mixed picture (this is why "right" translation ) becomes interesting.

GL traders

Sunday, June 4, 2017

Jun-Aug outlook

Seems the longer 18 month cycle is becoming very right translated (up).  There is a limit to how long that can last before it turns down.  Jun-Aug could see a substantial correction (bear market??).  Time will tell....

GL traders

Monday, May 29, 2017

Outlook week of May 29, 2017

Short week.  Old saying:  Sell in May and go away (as summer can be boring - as if the last 3 months didn't bore us!!!



update - longer term

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Week ahead May 22, 2017

A mini crash in the Dow Industries leaves the market as a whole trading sideways (no major pullback - yet).  The coming week may see some more pullback./

GL traders

Monday, May 15, 2017

Week ahead May 15, 2017

Readers noted inconsistencies in chart posted over week end.  Should refrain from posting when not feeling well.  Hopefully this is a better chart.

GL traders