Saturday, September 26, 2015

Week of Sep 28, 2015 and Oct outlooks

WEEK of Sept 28:

In the coming week all the long cycles are down (see second chart) as well as the 5 week cycle is down.  The longer cycles should be entering a HARD down time frame over the next several weeks, but should control the short term (next week) also.

Month of Oct:

As stated above the long cycles are down and should control the month of October and longer.  Expectations are that October could probably kick off a substantial move down 10-12% and give us an official "bear" market (pullback of 20% or more),

GL traders

Monday, September 21, 2015

Friday, September 18, 2015

Sept 21, 2015 weekly outlook

Longer cycles still down.  Also a couple of the shorter trading cycles are down. TSI expected to have a zero line cross from above (bearish).  CCI  continues to correct "over bought"  from this week just past.  This should result in a down week for the market:

GL traders


Saturday, September 12, 2015

Sept 14, 2015 weekly outlook

Expected the week just past to be negative biased, but it had a positive bias. Seems there are enough shorter cycles in an "up" phase to offset the longer cycles being down for the present.  Still a sideways movement expected as the market consolidates and resolves the next move up or down.  So a choppy market with 1-2% daily moves.  With the prior week up - will this week be down?

Some are looking at Tetrad (the fourth blood moon in a short period and Shemitah as indicators of a potential market crash in the coming couple of weeks (29 day of elul on the Jewish calendar).  A Black Monday?   Regardless we are over due a 20% market pull back over the remainder of 2015.


GL traders

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Sept 8, 2015 weekly outlook

When we look at the upcoming projected bottoms for longer cycles we see that bottom time is approaching. We see that these cycles are well into the second half of the cycle.  Normally the most down side within a longer cycle will occur in the last 1/8 to 1/4 of the cycle.  So far the market is flat in the first half of 2015 (topping process) and down in Aug/Sept.  So the bottom should occur by late 2015 or early 2016 as shown in this chart:

The 7 year, 3 1/2 year and 13 1/2 + month cycles are down.  This should provide a down side bias.

But if we focus on the shorter cycles  (20 week - 4.5 months, 10 week, 5 week, 2.5 week) we see they are all up at this time providing some off setting up side.  So do we go up or down?  A third possibility is sideways during the week. In my opinion we go sideways with a downside bias.  We may test the prior sub 16,000 DJIA level.

I expect around mid September we test that low and then in the last half of September we break below that level as some of the shorter cycles top and add to the downside pressure.  Here are the shorter cycles but it appears the longer cycles will cancel out the upside effect of these shorter cycles:

GL traders