Sunday, May 31, 2015

June 1, 2015 weekly outlook

cycle alignment suggests market will see a down side bias the first 3-4 days of the week and a possible turn by week's end.

The market has been going sideways since mid December with a slight upside bias.  I have been wondering for some time when we would break out to the upside or break to the down side for a much needed correction.  June/July may provide the first leg of a breakout.  Keep checking here for timely updates as we try to decipher the cycles and how they align and affect the market.

Based on cycle alignment we should see some moderate weakness in June with a low around June 5 and June 23.  It appears that the market is setting up for lower lows and that is needed to start a market correction.  In late July the 4 cycles align and form a nested bottom.  I reserve the right to modify this outlook if the data dictates a change....

GL traders

Friday, May 22, 2015

May 25, 2015 weekly outlook

Monday unchanged.... a holiday.   Long cycle (Wall) topped and is now down.   The shorter cycle (2.5 week - 12 TDs) is down.  the 5 week cycle is up and should top  as the first week of June arrives.  The 10 week cycle is up.  So with 2 cycles down and 2 up expect more sideways action, but I would expect a wider range than the week just ended. Possibly some downside bias as we enter June?

Our indicators (TSI and CCI) are turning negative as well.


GL traders

Saturday, May 16, 2015

May 18, 2015 weekly outlook

The past week SP500 had closing highs Thursday and Friday.  DJIA set ATHs on Thursday (but not closing highs).  The Naz failed to break its old 15 year high.  We said - don't be surprised if we saw ATHs during the week.  Expected the highs a day or so earlier than Thursday.....  Still not a bad call for the week.

This week we start the week off with the Wall cycle turning down for the week.  May take a week or more to develop downside momentum into late May and June.   The 3 shorter cycles start the week moving up.  The shorter cycle tops mid week and turns down.  Based on the position of the cycles expect a top by mid week and sideways to down last part of the week.  

By the end of May we may be into a real correction (sell in May and go away?)  We'll see how the cycles align by then....

GL traders

Friday, May 8, 2015

May 11, 2015 weekly outlook

Past week followed script, but Friday was a bit stronger than expected.  In the coming week the 3 shorter cycles are up.  The longer Wall cycle (20 weeks) tops.  So the bias should be up and with 3 cycles up it will be no surprise if some new ATHs (All Time Highs) are set  (DJIA, SP500, NAZ) with a strong upside bias.  Also, TSI and CCI gave positive indications.

Here is a visual:

GL traders

Friday, May 1, 2015

May 4, 2015 weekly outlook

The week just ended was mostly sideways with volatility (1-2%) up and down.  This was much as I posted based on conflicted cycles and indicators. 

The coming week seems clearer.  The 2.5 week (12 TDs) cycle is down thru the first 2-3 days of the week.  The 5 week cycle (24 TDs) topped and turns down.  The 10 week cycle continues down. The 20 week (Wall cycle) continues up for 2-3 weeks.

So to begin the week 3 cycles are down and one up.  By mid week the shorter cycle bottoms and turns up.  So a notable pull back should be noticeable for the week with a bottom by May 5-6 and sideways to up near the end of the week.

TSI continues to diverge (down while market was/is  sideways to up).  A sign of potential weakness.  CCI is slightly oversold.

GL traders