Wednesday, June 29, 2016

July 2016 outlook

I had been showing the last week of June as a point at which several cycles (medium/short term) achieved bottoms.  If you followed along you know this.  It is starting to appear that the bottom may have been set even though 1 more push down may be possible as determining bottom dates is not an exact science.  Still, my record looks reasonably good.....

If bottoms were set as I suspect then we start July with the medium/short length cycles turning up so the first half of July should show some upside strength (20, 10, 5 week cycles up).  By mid month the 5 week cycle tops and turns down so we could see some weakness the second half of July.

For your education and reading pleasure:

GL traders

TELSA requested:

Friday, June 24, 2016

Jun 27, 2016 weekly outlook

I mentioned in a couple of prior posts to be on the look out for a "scary" sell off.  Friday should qualify.

The market may be ready to establish a bottom.  Usually more than 1 day is required to establish a bottom.  So at least the first part of next week probably (2-3 days) will be needed to do that.  See update to last week's post - Bradley Chart  has July 5 as a turning point....  Because the bottom probably will be higher than the Feb 11 bottom  I feel that Feb 11 was a bottom for the 9 month cycle  and the next bottom for that cycle will be late in November,  The next 2-3 weeks should clarify this.

GL traders

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Future outlook week of June 20, 2016

 I said last week:  "According to my cycle analysis appears next week (and week of June 20) should see a sell off.".    That describes the week, except somewhat less downside than expected.

This week should continue down as several cycles are set to bottom.  The question is how severe will the sell down be  (BRexit during the week and Fed Chair appearing before congress I believe).  Could be a scary sell off (or not) depending on events.  The technical setup calls for a sizable pull back before month's end....

GL traders

Update 06/24:

Friday, June 10, 2016

June 13, 2016 weekly outlook

I wrote last week: "During the week the 5 week cycle tops and then we should see a notable sell down"  I think that describes the action of the week just ended.....

Failed to  reach ATH (and closing high) before mid week pull back.  According to my cycle analysis appears next week (and week of June 20) should see a sell off.  Sell off could be scary if cycle bottoms align as I show....  Time will tell.

GL traders

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Weekly outlook June 6, 2016

Moves of 100-150 points on the DOW intraday, but not much change by the end of the week (loss of around 70 points).  Practically no change in the SP500 by Friday close.  As I indicated in last week's post the down cycles should suppress the 5 week cycle.

During the week the 5 week cycle tops and then we should see a notable sell down for 2+ weeks in to the end of June.  May be similar to the sell off we saw  mid-Jan  to mid-Feb.  Time will tell, but given recent economic numbers  (retail sales in autos, upscale retail stores  and payroll #s) a sell off should not surprise.

GL traders