When it comes to longer cycles in theory most of the actual downside will occur in the last 15% or so of that cycle's down leg. For the 20 week cycle that would be 15% of 10 weeks or about 1.5 weeks. So I took a look to see what level we might expect based on the 34TD cycle and 20 week cycle bottoming this week. This ignores the effect of shorter cycles - I was looking for a possible explanation not exactitude. The 20 week cycle has about 80 points of amplitude. The 34TD cycle also has about 80 points of amplitude. So that is about 160 points of potential down side if these two cycles bottomed together. We started this down turn around 1356. 1356 less 180 is 1176. So this allows for some 24 points of up side from the 22TD cycle over this period. (which topped and turned down within the last 3-4 days.). So this is a possible explanation - the 20 week and 34TD cycle bottoming together (within a day or so of each other).
Like I said - the next week or so should tell the story, I was not expecting these levels until mid August when I expected the 22TD cycle and 20 week cycle to bottom together. So if the 20 week cycle has/is bottoming the mid month bottom will be less severe than I expected. Some of today's weakness may bleed into tomorrow, but we may have seen most of the selling for now.
So lets say we see some weakness early and then get some buying and close to the upside (this assumes we did see the 20 week cycle bottom). Here is a visual of the shorter cycles:
News trumps all, or lack of it. What you do here is good, don't stop. Your blog is enjoyable for many I am sure. I always find that writing your thoughts is always a good idea no matter if you are right or wrong.
ReplyDeleteThanks again,
Dan
Dan - never claimed cycles were the silver bullet with all the answers. If you read my main disclosure I say it is a "tool" and should be used with your own analysis/tools for purposes of checking your conclusions.
ReplyDeleteAs to news trumping all - I have seen the market go down on what appeared to be good news (how were earnings this qtr?) and up on what seemed to be bad news. In other words - news has its limits as the market often trades on future expectations.
http://astrofibo.blogspot.com/2011/08/sp500-time-ratio_05.html
ReplyDeleteAstrofibo - Are you showing a squaring of time and price...I'm seeing it also.... Using GANN 50% retracement rule from the 2010 July Low to the 2011 March Hi SP bottom is between 1175-1205. So we can reverse at any point here.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we got a reversal on our hands....ECB or Jobs...all a part of the cycles.
ReplyDeleteHi came across cycle stuff on S&P quite impressive did hit the bttom as you said well done
ReplyDeleteShadow7 - too early to say for sure with the volatility we are seeing. But, it looks hopeful and if the 20week cycle has/is bottoming we could see some green over the next 4-5 days.
ReplyDeletejit - glad you found my modest blog worth your attention. Need to wait a couple of days to see if today was a bottom (and take any bows).
ReplyDeleteShadow - today was a spiral date cluster which indicates a pivot date in spiral land. Also Saturday is 30 degrees on the Gann circle and is of interest in Gann land. Aligns pretty well with our assumptions and is interesting at least.
Inlet should we be close to selling gold?
ReplyDeleteMouth, based on my last analysis (July 25th) we are in the time frame where we should see a high (for now) in gold. See post on $hui July 25.
ReplyDeleteWell it appears you may of missed where I was coming, good luck to you.
ReplyDelete