Today started like a house on fire. Somebody forgot to call the fire department and an hour later the house was ashes (after the ISM #s). Of course, this was consistent with what the cycles were predicting. By the end of the day the market recovered substantially. I would like to point out even though we closed in the red the VIX was down over 6%. Given the strength of the recovery the VIX may be telling us that today was the bottom? It had that feeling. So I think there is a good chance (close to 50%) that the cycles bottomed today. If not the bottom should happen in the morning and the shorter cycles except the 22TD cycle will be up by the end of the day (the 22TD cycle tops and turns down). Watch the pre-market and decide if you want to risk a long trade tomorrow.
I believe there may be indecisive action early and by the end of the day we should rally some and have an up day. Here is a visual:
I still say we don't bottom until Wednesday 8/3...about midday. Tomorrow will be another see-saw ride...but from Tuesday to Wednesday will be a big drop....I could be wrong...the tell-tell will be if tomorrow we close higher than today. If we don't then get ready for a nice drop into Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteFeels like we are doing a big symmetrical triangle on the bottom....which I've learned the bottom is close but hasn't arrived.
ReplyDeleteAlso take a peek at SPIRALS CALENDAR. Even though the author says that it is just for indicating a significant turning point...I've found that the scores indicate direction as well....higher being up and lower being down.
ReplyDeleteYou may be right, but I have to call them as I see them. If you look at the chart July 7 seems to be (clearly?) a high. Today was the 17th day since then (the 34TD cycle bottom?).
ReplyDeleteWe will see. Wouldn't be the first time I have been wrong. As I have commented on prior occasions - nailing the exact turning point can be difficult.
I agree with the start date I was just thinking a 35 day count? As long as we are aware of the possibilities it's all good.
ReplyDeleteInlet any updates on AAPl it doesn't seem to be doing much?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Shadow7 -
ReplyDeleteI'd be a bit flexible on that 35 day count. Remember if it is a derivative of the 65-70TD cycle that is 32.5-35 days.
I am inclined to think it is 67+ days (Gann - 3/4 of 90 = 67.5). This is 3 x 22.25TD cycles or 2 x 33.75TD cycles. Finally the 20 week (100TD) cycle is 3 X 33.33 day).
Something to consider.
Yeap...I've learned to give this are some room...but from what the action has been so far today I think we haven't bottomed yet. Vote is going on now and the pattern since Monday looks like a symmetrical triangle...so I'm thinking we got 1 final leg down....11,990-11880 range.
ReplyDeleteGood call Shadow, and good call on the 31st Inlet. Your call for a test of 1260 in the first 2 days of the week was spot on. Glad I wasn't betting on this debt ceiling thing this would have all been opposite to what I expected.
ReplyDeleteWell that range is shot... let's try 11700.
ReplyDeleteWell, we see tomorrow how much bleed over we get in the morning. If the ADP #s stink up the place it could be substantial. On the other hand if the ADP #s look good it could turn the market to the upside. Only thing I know for sure is tomorrow should be interesting.
ReplyDeleteI got tomorrow as dipping hard into a bottom and then recovering by EOD. So all in all a flat day...but mainly a bottom that should run til end of the month. Albeit Thursday may be a big up....but Friday may come down hard because of jobs report. Monday should be the start of a nice steady climb.
ReplyDeleteShadow7 I have the 20week and 22TD cycle bottoming mid month, so I expect any upturn to be fairly short and then down in to a mid month bottom. Will it be a lower bottm? Not sure - but we seem to be establishing a pattern of lowere highs and lower bottoms.
ReplyDeleteWow!!!....I've got the 20WK Wall (100TD) bottom tomorrow. I started the 20WK count on March 16/17th. I had it topping May 25th, 2011. 22TD I got it bottoming Aug. 22, 2011. 35TD I've got bottoming Aug. 12, 2011. So that is why my chart shows an uptrend starting tomorrow. If I'm off on the Wall cycle then that will throw my upswing off. If what you're saying is correct we will be going lower. I'll keep my eyes peeled. Thanks!!!!
ReplyDeleteYou guys rocked it ....brilliant thanks Inlet and shadow en fuego.
ReplyDelete