comments and outlook for 08-03-2011

Was today a selling climax?  Hard to say, but it could have been.  Still, when the market ends near the day's lows it leaves one concerned about the next day and if there will be some carry over to the next day. Regardless - I sold the second of three tranches of QID today (like usual left too much on the table).  I also added to long positions (too early, but it could have been worse).  Yes Virginia - I do trade my analysis. So I am now about 2 X 1 long.

Was today the bottom?  It is always difficult to pinpoint the exact bottom, but according to my analysis today should have been the bottom.  Shadow thinks it will be tomorrow, and I would not argue with that as it is easy to be off by a day or so. If we get a 1-2% downside move tomorrow I expect I will increase my long to shorts to 3 X 1.  Yes, I generally hold longs and shorts, because like I said pinpointing turns is not exact.

Tomorrow the 2.8TD, the 5.6TD, the 11.2TD, the 34TD cycles should be up if I have them positioned correctly.  The 22TD cycle and 65-70TD cycles should have turned down.  The 20week cycle is down and should bottom around mid month.   Overall we should have a flattish day with an upside bias.  The range should be 1247-1279.  If we break below 1247 then the downside potential is around 1228.

Here is the SPX chart:

GL traders.  As always - do your own analysis and be careful.