Monday, December 28, 2015

2016 Yearly outlook

Bradley based cycles:

Wall cycles:

Note that the nested bottoms match the major turning points (bottoms?) of the Bradley cycles while the top July 1 (Bradley chart) matches the top of the nine month cycle.  Also, may see some longer cycles bottoming (Kitchin,  Juglar) in early 2016....

Matching charts arrived at using different methods increases confidence in results.

Time will tell.... Looking for other projection charts.  If you see other chart projections I would like to see them so add a comment with a URL.


Thursday, December 24, 2015

Dec 28,2015 weekly outlook

Did not get any downside until last trading day of the week last week.  I had expected more downside to start Tuesday or Wednesday.  Looks like down into the new year (last minute tax selling?)

Happy New Year's

GL traders

Short term trade (updated Dec 29 after close)

Dec 31 11:30 am  - out for the year:

Friday, December 18, 2015

Dec 21, 2015 weekly outlook

Expecting another down week into Christmas.  Seems Santa forgot to get a flu shot and is under the weather and finding it hard to rally.  May even have to call second string Santa to come in as a substitute!!!!

Merry Christmas

GL traders

Update 1:

Traded this one multiple times in December.....

Update 2:
Shorter time span trade signals:

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Dec 17, economic production

Economic cycles and stock cycles differ.  Normally an economic cycle will precede a stock cycle.  Industrial production shocked to the downside this morning (Dec 16) with a drop of 0.6%, the most in 3.5 years.  this should be a predictor of a coming substantial stock decline sometime in early 2016.

Prior Shemitah started in Sept 2007 ended in Sept 2008 just prior to the cascading down the fall and winter of 2008-2009.   I have seen that many expected a sell off during Shemitah, but the sell off follows the end of Shemitah.  We are now in the time line for a sell off (commonly referred to as the 7 year cycle).

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Dec 14, 2015 weekly outlook

Appears a short term bottom around Wednesday Dec 16.  This should align with FOMC interest rate decision.

GL traders

Over time cycles may vary in length...  The 10 week cycle may have morphed into a 7 week cycle over the past 2-3 months and 3x7 weeks changed the 20 week cycle into a 21 week cycle.  I expect at some point they will revert back to 20 and 10 week cycles.....

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Dec 7, 2015 weekly outlook

Pope Francis declares International year of Jubilee Dec 8, 2015:  odious debt to be forgiven!

There you go - all that odious debt GONE!!!!  Where did it go?  I guess the winners are those who took on debt that exceeded their ability to pay.

I have always found numerology in the Bible interesting.  It starts with 7 days...  There are lots of multiples of 7 (the 7th being a day of rest/worship).  There is 7x7 + 1 - Pentecost is 50 days after Easter.  Jubilee year happens ever 50 years....  Seven years is Shemitah (a stock cycle?).

So do cycles relate to biblical numerology?  Twenty weeks is 140 days (ten weeks is 70 days).  Subtract weekends and 20 weeks is 100 TDs (trading days) .Often we see 20 week cycles (or 10 week mid-cycles of 50 TDs).

I looked at Russell 2000 index to see if there was any weekly pattern (7 calendar days or 5 trading days).  Here is what I saw:

(30 min chart)

GL traders