We should have seen the bottom of the 20 week cycle (I believe). I suppose the PTBs could test that low Monday. So I expect a lot of the downside pressure to subside fairly quickly if we open lower. Looking at the shorter cycles the 34TD cycle is up, the 11.2TD cycle is up. The 22TD cycle is down, the 5.6TD cycle is topping and turning down. The 2.8TD cycle is up. Given the turning radius of the 20 week cycle it will have little influence for a while. The 22TD cycle and 35TD cycle should offset to a large extent.
So it appears the shortest cycles may provide some upside momentum. Best guess is we start the day lower (as the boyz load the truck) and then we see a bounce and turn green. I suspect we could see a moderate advance (5-10 S&P points) by the end of the day. Guess it depends on how big a squeeze the boyz lay on the shorts.
Here is the SPX:
Inlet: What are we missing? Something else much bigger is bottoming or coming down?
ReplyDeleteInlet: I raise the question - is there are 3 year cycle that is bottoming as we speeak....as the 6 year tops?
ReplyDeleteShadow - I am clueless. maybe the 6 yer cycle topped a couple of months early. The boyz are having fun though as they destroy the longs and will do the same to the shorts soon. Looks evil to me - S&P down 6.66% (of course it was 5.55% for the DOW). ;)
ReplyDeleteShadow7 - how about a 9 month (39-40week) cycle along with the 20 week cycle bottoming together?
ReplyDelete