Saturday, January 28, 2017

Jan 30, 2017 weekly outlook

I said last week: "Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.
".  That proved to be the case.

Coming week we see the 4 1/2 month (20 week cycle) turning down as the 5 and 10 week cycles move higher.  This will prevent a run away to the upside.  Expect sideways action with possible small/moderate gains for the week.

GL traders.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Weekly outlook for Jan 23, 2017

I said last week - "Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week".  From the current chart appears those 2 shorter cycles are definitely up.  Not  sure the "M" pattern will develop....

WARNING: One thing that always screws with the timing of tops and bottoms during this time (Nov through mid January) is the multiple days the market is closed due to holidays (Thanksgiving - 1.5 days, Christmas - 1 day, New Years - 1 day and MLK day.  A total of 4.5 days market is closed in about 1.5 months).  So be aware of the potential compression of market days in a cycle during this time of year.

 Appears though the market should have an upward bias in the coming week.

GL traders

Update - gold/silver index:

Hitting resistance as 7 week cycle tops (should bottom 3rd week of February as 3.5 month cycle tops).

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Jan 16, 2017 weekly outlook

Two shorter cycles bottoming during the week (an "M" formation?).  Nothing is for certain and patterns are rarely perfect, but  if the pattern develops as expected the coming week should fall as the pattern develops. 

Bottoms may not match actual data and require some adjustments....

GL traders

Update Jan 18 (see comment on Hurst signal):


Saturday, January 7, 2017

Jan 9, 2017 weekly outlook

Looking at last week, you should have bought Tuesday.  The market is whipsawing traders (and I missed that call).  Chartists call the recent activity a mid-cycle move down.    This usually gives us an "M" formation and it appears we have the first 3/4 of that formation. 

If that formation completes then the market will be down in the coming week.  I believe we have better than a 50% chance the week is down.

GL traders



Update Jan 12:

update Jan 13: