Wednesday, August 28, 2013

aug 28, 2013 outlook

Appears we should be at a cycle bottom for shorter cycles, so we should see some upside over the next couple of weeks.  Will we retest old highs?  I expect a 1700 high (just short of old highs) is possible.  So if you bought RWM consider taking profits.

Here is how it looks:

Volatility has increased with shorter moves up and reversals down.  May want to sell before long weekend as short term envelope chart starting to say "sell":

Sunday, August 25, 2013

aug 25, 2013 - outlook

Appears a short term bottom was set and I would expect an attempt to rally next week.  Then early in Sept a short pullback and a rally into  Oct and a more sustained pullback into the end of the year the last 2 months of 2013.

Here is how it looks from the alignment of the cycles:

I'll try to update shorter cycle impacts as we progress....  I have a limit order to  buy
RWM currently.

RWM now OK to buy:


RWM up almost 3% since yesterday afternoon:


Saturday, August 24, 2013

Aug 24, 2013 - Gold cycles

There is never just one cycle, but multiple cycles at any given point in time.  Sometimes though cycles align so that multiple cycles bottom or top at the same time.  This happened with gold in June as a bottom was set. 

It would be so easy if we could just pick "a" cycle and get the complete picture, but we can't.  If we look at the gold chart we see a 13 1/2 month cycle,  a 6 3/4 month cycle (often identified as a 7 month cycle) that is half the 13 1/2 month cycle, the Wall cycle (4 1/2 month or 1/3 the 13 1/2 month cycle or 20 weeks or 142 days) and a half Wall cycle (10 weeks). 

On the following charts I have tried to identify times when the effect of each of these cycles is  visible and somewhat dominant.  We are now in a time where all these cycles bottomed together and turned up together giving us a vigorous bounce off the bottom.

See for yourself:

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Aug 19, 2013 outlook

Had opined we might see a short term trend change last week.  We may have seen a bottom Friday (OPEX expiration) or early this week.  Time will tell, but we have hit the top of the target area I had been looking for 1645-1655 (so we could see a bit more down?). 

Here is a visual of the outlook:

As I indicated in comments yesterday before close I had sold part of my RWM position for a modest gain (~~ 2%).  Today I am watching RWM to repurchase those shares.  Here is my approach:

Buy signal early tomorrow (fill the gap and channel lines cross?)...

Monday, August 12, 2013

Aug 13, 2013 update

 Jim Chanos notes that more stocks are trading above three times book value today than at the 2000 market peak......  But over valuations can last longer than we expect.

It looks like we should see a short term bottom this week:

2013 chart with data thru July:

Best guess - short term bottom set (short term top around Aug 20-21):

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

aug 06, 2013 update

Finally we may be getting a short term trend change.  I'll reserve opinion on whether this results in a longer term change.  We know we need a budget (continuing resolutions?) by end of Sept.  We have a debt ceiling that may cause contention by Oct?  And we may see the FED taper by Sep/Oct. 

Currently my charts are pointing to Oct-Dec as a larger/longer down turn....