Thursday, September 15, 2011

outlook for 09-16-2011

Today was not as expected.  It seems clear that I am not correctly interpreting the data.  In looking at the chart I see a "W" which spans 11 days and should complete the right leg tomorrow morning.  So the span will be about 11.2 days.  the left and right half of the "W" is about 5.6 days.  This leads me to believe we may have the 5.6 and 11.2 TD cycles topping in the morning.  If true then I need to reevaluate the positioning of the swing cycles as the alignment may have changed.  I will try to do a more complete evaluation over the week end.

Overall though it appears that we should see a top tomorrow.  We will see.

Here is the SPX swing cycles with the "W" pattern highlighted:

GL traders. Do your own analysis.


  1. Phil Davis of Phil's Stock World blocked his daily article for 48 hours, so only part of the article was available. I am not a paying member of his site.
    Still, the portion of the available article implies that he will take profits today & hedge for the weekend. So, maybe your "M" pattern will prove correct.

  2. sets up perfect for their monday gap down and puke they've been using frequently over the past couple o one gets in short unless they held on friday close

  3. I just stared at the computer the last 15 minutes of trading saying to myself "Do something". Ended up not playing it. Just not sure with all this new liquidity. I suspect the market will gap down & I will miss out.

    The keystone Speculator has shown charts for the last couple weeks that gold will breakdown. Copper is breaking down & copper can be the "canary in the coal mines".

    I have been reading the SKF board, but probably won't post there for awhile. I need to figure out who the cast of characters are.

  4. Thanks doctrader for the info.

    Kli, it seems the last 6 weeks of volatility has become dominated by the shorter cycles - particularly the 11.2TD cycle and less so by the 5.6TD cycle. The longer 22TD cycle and 34TD cycle seem to have moderated and provide less of the movment in the market.

    I think you may be right about Monday Kli. As a matter of fact we may puke most of next week.