Thursday, September 1, 2011

Outlook for 09-02-2011

I opined that today would be flat and it was a good portion of the day, but it finally gave way to down side pressure.  According to my analysis (and best guess) the 22TD cycle should be topping.  A late sell off like today lends some proof that a topping is probably taking place (and may have already happened even though I have the 22TD cycle top as Tues after Labor Day).  I guess the question is - do we attempt one more upside try?

So we have the 34TD cycle down, the 11.2TD cycle is down, the 5.6TD cycle is down.  The 22TD cycle is up (may have topped or is topping) and the 2.8TD cycle is up.  On balance it appears the bias should be down tomorrow.  Given tomorrow we get monthly employment data for Aug and it is expected to be "not so good",  I believe it would take a big up side surprise to over ride this bias.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.  My RWM position was green at the end of the day.

Bonus info (see for additional information):

Always consider other sources in your analysis.

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