Wednesday, September 21, 2011


The market was down and down more than I expected....  Not much doubt in my mind the bias is now down for the next 3-4 days.

Tomorrow we have the 2.8TD cycle up and the 5.6TD cycle up.  The 11.2TD cycle is down.  By now this 11.2TD cycle should be accelerating into its maximum downside momentum.  So even though the 2 shorter cycles are up the best case for the bulls IMO is a flat day tomorrow, but I believe it could easily be down 10 S&P points.

Here is the SPX showing these short swing cycles:

GL traders,  My RWM position looking good, QID position is lagging.


  1. Looks like we could open down 30 or more S&P points.

  2. GLD has hit the 170 area in pre-market tradinng. It might be worth buying some December CALLs here. I suspect it will bounce off here....but my buy time is 10/4 - 10/7.....but this is the buy target.

  3. Looks like I'm 0 for 2 regarding predicions on your blog.
    Phil Davis wrote on his site today that he was suprised with the Fed's decision, and it would have been better if they said nothing at all.
    I suppose Kliguy would say all of this is being orchestrated as part of a grand plan. I have read some sources that the Republicans are doing everything they can to make Obama/Democrats look bad prior to the November elections. Seems to me that although a QE3 program is ultimately bad for the world, the Feds have little choice in doing one eventually.

  4. Shadow7 - be careful, catching falling knives can be hazardous to your health.

    Doctrader - we don't keep score on predictions. As to a grand plan my take is that the FED is in a box with no good options. So IMO they have no good options or solutions. Same goes for the governments. Is it planned or just finally a recognition that they cannot control the eventual outcome?

  5. Inlet - I just took 1 December 185 Call...if we don't hold this 167 level I'll get out. Again my buy date was 10/4 - 10/7 so I might be a little early. 170 was the buy price.