Tuesday, September 13, 2011

outlook for 09-14-2011

I was right about the first part of the day, but we did not get the fade I expected in the second half of the day.  So not a great call over all.  I expect the next 3 days to see a downside bias (may even get severe).  As I have stated before calling the exact turning point is always difficult for the short cycles.  It is always possible you have the placement of the cycles off and get a bad read.  Still I told you Monday we likely would get an up side push by Tuesday.

We may get a bit more upside in the morning, but we are entering a time period when we could see a hard push down as multiple cycles should bottom together Friday (could be as late as Monday). The 34, 22, 11.2 TD cycles are down (as is the 65-70TD cycle).  The 5.6TD cycle should top and turn down tomorrow.  The 2.8TD cycle should bottom and turn up.  This cycle alignment should result in a considerable down side bias by the end of the day.

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders, do your own analysis.  I bought back some RWM and QID today (was slightly red on my positions at end of day).


  1. Inlet,

    I don't think so many were dependent on Joe and Kli per your last post, it just had an honest feel type of blog...I actually think Joe and Kli benefited from the posters as well, as 4 eyes can only see so much...

  2. Maybe you are right. There were only a couple of posters like yourself and doc trader that regularly brought ideas to the board. I saw a lot of posts thanking Kli (and Joe) for their contribution to success in trading.

    Many there were trading suggestions by Kli and Joe almost exclusively which is why I made the comment I did. Still, I could be wrong.

    I sometimes report trades I make, but you will find I do no make many suggestions on specific equities because I believe that should be left to the individual. If that is what people are seeking then my blog is not for them.

  3. Just to chime in:

    Per Phil Davis of Phil's Stock World, he was cautiously bullish today and advised to watch the Russell (^RUT). He did not feel though that it would break 700. However, it peaked at 712.57 and closed at 704.12.
    I am going to watch the ^RUT. If it cannot hold 700, then perhaps time for a short position. A failure of the ^RUT to hold 700 would correlate with your cycles.

  4. Doctrader - thanks. More information is better than less.