Tuesday, September 6, 2011

outlook for 09-07-2011

I said that the bias today should be down and the day would be volatile...  Check.  I opined by the end of the day we could see a 15 point decline on S&P.  We saw a bit less than that - 50% credit.  Overall not a bad call for the day.

Tomorrow (probably before the open) we should get a ruling from the German courts on the constitutionality of bailing out other EU countries.  Probably will add more confusion than clarity to this issue. 

May get a little continuation of the end of day rally (close the S&P gap?) and then continue the move down.  The 2.8TD has topped or should top early in the day.  So that leaves the 5.6TD  and 11.2TD cycles up.  The 22TD cycle, the 34TD cycle and the longer 67TD cycle are down.  So the bias tomorrow should be down and we should have another red close (10-15 points?).

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders.   still holding my short ETFs (QID and RWM).     

1 comment:

  1. Total miss today!!! Who would ahve thought a German court decision (which IMO was no surprise) would have such an impact. I must have totally misjudged the stength of the shorter cycles.