Tuesday, September 20, 2011


Well today was flat....  As I mentioned a couple of times last week it seems the shorter cycles are dominant (for the time being).  That continues - Friday's early  S&P 1220 level to today's top (around 1220) was the top-to-top of a 2.8TD cycle I believe.

Trying to figure the best way to show the positioning of these cycles on a chart.  So the 2.8TD cycle is now down.  I believe the 11.2TD cycle and 5.6TD cycles topped Friday morning.  The 11.2TD cycle is down while the 5.6TD cycle has bottomed (or is near a bottom) and is turning up.  With this alignment tomorrow should be down.  Given recent volatility that could be 15-25 points on the S&P.

Here is the SPX showing these short swing cycles:

GL traders....  all is a bit confusing currently - maybe we get a clearer picture soon.


  1. I believe the current push up is all due to the 6 year cycle topping.

  2. Well, we will find out this afternoon what Ben decides.
    I still feel he will have to do something now, and not wait until later in the year. Zero Hedge has an article which states 1 Trillion dollars is need to support the Shadow Banking system. Whether Ben says today that he will print those dollars, I don't know. But, apparently there are trillions of dollars sitting in Bank reserves. Some believe that he may state that the FED will lower interest payment to those banks holding those dollars. Thus, those dollars could be forced into circulation.
    I might take a chance and buy some SVM today. Hopefully there is no fraud there.

  3. GLD may be a buy right now. It's in a consolidation pattern...I've got a buy date between October 4-7th, 2011. If it breaks above 175 watch it closely.

  4. Doctrader, shadow7 - GL if you decide to take positions.