Thursday, September 29, 2011


We finished green on the DOW and S&P (red NAZ) so my call for a green day was partially right.  Job #s a bit better than expectations and Germany voted yes on the Europe bailout thing...  Seemed the market had every reason to rally and it did early.  By around 3 pm though the market was down and then turned up the last hour.  Every reason in the world to test highs from earlier in the week and we did not.  This up, down, up volatility seems like a topping process to me.  So how about tomorrow?

We may get some up action early on, but I believe if we do it will fade rather quickly.  I would think any end of month and end of quarter window dressing is completed.  It will be Monday before we see new pension/401k money entering the market.  So we have 2 shorter cycles topping early tomorrow and that should turn the market down in the afternoon.  I believe we will close lower tomorrow (just hoping to get some QID under $50).

Here is the SPX swing cycles:

GL traders, do your own analysis.  Be careful.  I will try to provide a monthly outlook soon.


  1. I was hoping to set up a short play too, but looks like we will gap down at the open.
    Watching RTH to hold 103.9, the Utilities to hold 426.79, and S&P to hold 1140. If those levels fail, further selling could be swift.

  2. Don't know the specifics on the Greece plan.. Apparently they found some solution that doesn't overreach Germany's constitution? Or might the court yet strike it down?

    Ah well feeling better now about shifting to a more cash-heavy position. I was having doubts, even Daneric was calling for an imminent move to 1180 :P

  3. Morla

    Cash is good. You read my blog because I can't do EW squiggles. lol