Friday, February 4, 2011

The week ahead 2-7

I had expected a downward bias this past week.  Did not happen.  I did tell you the market was not ready to fall substantially though and pointed out two cycles that were up for the week (knew it was possible the week would be up, but thought the longer cycles would have a bit more influence than they did).  So not a good week as far as my expectations were concerned.

Still the market did not make a great deal of upside progress.  All the medium term cycles should (by now) have turned down.  I have tried hard to make sure I have positioned all cycles properly - because I felt we are at a turning point....  The evidence is that we have reached that pivot point.  Even bears deserve a day, a week or two weeks every now and then.  So I am going out on a limb - not only will we be down next week, but we should be down hard.  A 5-6% down would not surprise me.  Not only will next week be down, but so will the following week.  IMO - if we are to get a 10% correction the next 2 weeks is the best setup we have had since last May.

What will trigger the sell off?  I am not sure. Today's employment #s could contribute? Egypt? Default by Ireland?  Take your pick.  Maybe the combination of more than one thing.

Here  is the SPX chart:

If you disagree, please state the bullish case for the next 2 weeks.  Give me a chance to consider the bullish case and possibly change my mind.

GL traders.  Make sure you do your DD.  This is as "bearish" as I have been in a few months.

Update:  Momey flow (T-theory) is projecting a top Feb 14 (one week from Monday):


  1. I hear you loud and clear Bradley turn dates are right at that February Bottom. Like you said acceleration is on the very bottoms so moving towards February OEX. February and March Max Pain are at 1290 and 1250!!! So it seems to me we are headed down and fast. Not to mention by E-Wave Theory we are at the top of the 5th Wave of a 1-2-3-4-5 Wave Pattern that started in July. After this we have a A-B-C Correction at least to the November levels (3 & 4 Waves).

  2. Also the Mid February and April lows should be completion of the A and C Waves. April will be the best time to go long.