Sunday, February 27, 2011

The month ahead (March) 2-28

I have provided you a comprehensive long term outlook.  Of course this gives you the expected overall environment over the next couple of years, but does nothing when it comes to shorter time frames for swing cycle trading.  So Here is the outlook for the coming month.

  • The Wall cycle (20 weeks) should be down
  • The 1 year cycle should be down
  • The Kitchin cycle (41 months) should be down
These are the primary cycles that should drive the market over the next few weeks (month).  So it would seem we should expect a down bias in March.  The envelope (lower channel) target is around 1250.  Of course if we get a hard sell off this may be optimistic.  On the other hand with the FED pumping (POMO) liquidity into the economy/market this could be too pessimistic.  Still, I believe the bias for the month is down.

Here is a chart looking at the near future (next month or so):
GL traders.  Do your own analysis.  Use stops to preserve your gains.

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