Cycles are a tool and should not be used to the exclusion of other tools. There is always the possibility (high probability long term) that the data will be misinterpreted or a relevant fact over looked. So use cycles to check your analysis, not as the only reason to make a decision. Interpretation is the opinion of the author and may be incorrect and should be viewed in that light.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
The month ahead (March) 2-28
I have provided you a comprehensive long term outlook. Of course this gives you the expected overall environment over the next couple of years, but does nothing when it comes to shorter time frames for swing cycle trading. So Here is the outlook for the coming month.
The Wall cycle (20 weeks) should be down
The 1 year cycle should be down
The Kitchin cycle (41 months) should be down
These are the primary cycles that should drive the market over the next few weeks (month). So it would seem we should expect a down bias in March. The envelope (lower channel) target is around 1250. Of course if we get a hard sell off this may be optimistic. On the other hand with the FED pumping (POMO) liquidity into the economy/market this could be too pessimistic. Still, I believe the bias for the month is down.
Here is a chart looking at the near future (next month or so):
GL traders. Do your own analysis. Use stops to preserve your gains.