Tuesday, December 21, 2010

12-22 mid week cycle update

We keep grinding higher and higher as the longer cycles up more than offset the medium and short cycles down.  Based on market action you get the feeling though that there is little or no upside left.  But feelings are not analysis. 

We could get some down action as early as tomorrow as the 34 day cycle tops and turns down.  A pullback to the 1240 range over the next 2 days seems possible.  But with the longer cycles pushing higher I would say the possibility of this is no more than 50-50.  It appears though the possibility of a pull back increases the week after Christmas as the cycle that has been pushing up since July 1 should top (180 days). 

So be on alert for weakness Wed/Thur and increase vigilance after Christmas.

Here is the SPX:

Gl traders - keep your stops fairly tight so you don't give a lot of your gains back if we get a down trend soon.


  1. Once again...thank you for our blog. Forgive me if I asked this on another post...but where can I more information on the different cycles? I see you have mentioned 180, 34, 22, 5.5 day and 13 hour cycles and I sure there are a whole lot more. And how do you determine the starts/stops, etc. TIA.

  2. Shadow7 -

    JM Hurst's book:


    Some info on Gann cycles:


    Prior posts on cycle lengths:



    This should cover the more common cycles... There are many books on cycles (check Amazon), so I am sure this is not a complete list. One word of caution - for the shorter cycles I normally refer to them in "Trading Days" and for the longer cycles in calendar days (ie 180 days is calendar days). You will also find this to be true in a lot of the literature. Some also refer to a cycle length as time from bottom to top (or top to bottom) whereas to me that is 1/2 a cycle.

    Well, this should get you started.